Congrats to Logan! http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1
Sent from my iPhone > On Jan 4, 2016, at 7:52 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: > > Congratulations! Interesting projection. > > Jim Bromer > >> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 5:56 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Hi, >> >> just wanted to share the joy of getting some publicity, >> the article about robot population I recently published got picked up by >> Business Insider: >> >> http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 >> http://www.businessinsider.com.au/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 >> http://www.techinsider.io/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 >> >> happily, >> Logan >> >>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> >>> >>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>> Once we have human level AGI it has been shown that such an intelligence >>>> will be capable of achieving near infinite intelligence after four years >>>> of recursive self improvement (assuming things like Moores law holds up). >>>> Even a single robot with such an intelligence would be capable of >>>> enslaving humanity. >>> Hi John, >>> >>> That is indeed a common belief I hear, however it doesn't seem any more >>> realistic than "grey goo". Wheras "grey goo" is limited by the same energy >>> inputs as water-based life-forms, thus couldn't really do any better than a >>> virus/spore. Similarly any individual intelligence is limited by >>> experience or "wisdom". >>> >>> So wheras with intelligence it could become very optimal for a certain set >>> of functions, >>> due to the near infinite variability of reality means it would simply make >>> it overspecialized. >>> >>> A simple thought experiment demonstrates: an urban homo-sapien and a common >>> chimpanzee in a jungle, even though the homo-sapien may be much more >>> intelligent, the common chimpanzee is much more likely to succeed in the >>> jungle environment due to greater experience with it. In any kind of >>> confrontation the common chimpanzee would win due to greater strength and >>> stamina, only if the chimpanzee was greatly outnumbered could it be subdued >>> by humans. >>> >>> Of course typically humans would use technology/weapons to even the playing >>> field, >>> though that requires a vast supporting culture, of people that make the >>> technology and teach about it's proper use. A single human can only >>> realistically make a tool from a stone or a stick, it would typically take >>> hundreds to make metal tools and the kind of infrastructure to clothe and >>> arm a human to be able to defeat a chimpanzee "on their own". >>> >>> Considering that making a robot is even more difficult, with all the chip >>> factories, sensor factories, and assembly, it would require hundreds or >>> thousands of co-operating co-located robots with no opposition simply to >>> repair themselves and make new host bodies (from scratch). >>> >>> "no man is an island" as the saying goes, even more so for robots. >>> Even the chimpanzee has the jungle, which is many thousands of water-based >>> life forms working together. >>> >>> -- >>> Logan >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>> >>>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Thanks Douglas, so it seems that in Haiti the ratio was 10:1 when they >>>>> succefully gained their own freedom. So for a robot-initiated freedom >>>>> revolt, we'd probably be waiting around till 2070 ish -- when (assuming >>>>> trends continue) 70 times more robots are produced per year than humans. >>>>> >>>>> Though in local pockets the 10:1 ratio can be reached sooner, such as due >>>>> to the whole divide between the rich and the poor, and rich and slightly >>>>> less rich, as the upper middle class which may not be able to hire large >>>>> staff of human servants, would instead hire robot servants. In their >>>>> gated communities the ratio can certainly get to 10:1 or more much faster >>>>> than waiting for a global revolt. Assuming they would be able to pass the >>>>> turing test and successfully emulate people, might be able to do a >>>>> replacement routine, where the gated community becomes 100% robot, while >>>>> appearing to still have "slave masters" present. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 8:42 PM, Douglas Solomon >>>>>> <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On 01/03/2016 08:15 PM, Logan Streondj wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Depends on your definition of robot. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to come >>>>>>> up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such a >>>>>>> worldwide conflict could occur. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as many >>>>>>> or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point there >>>>>>> may be enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a space for >>>>>>> themselves." >>>>>>> >>>>>>> You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Why would this be the case? >>>>>> >>>>>> No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called it "A >>>>>> Home for Robots or-else Artilect War", simply that before there are more >>>>>> robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for revolt. While some >>>>>> estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the population, I think >>>>>> more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the height of slavery in >>>>>> America. However in Attica (athens) it seems at some point more than >>>>>> 90% of the population were slaves. >>>>>> I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and >>>>>> other things, >>>>>> I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have to >>>>>> look at the mechanics of emancipation. >>>>>> >>>>>> One Word: HAITI. >>>>>> >>>>>> That *REALLY* pissed-off a powerful bunch of people. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>> And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then why not >>>>>>> just say 2055 and be done with it? >>>>>> I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. >>>>>> >>>>>> I take science fiction very seriously, >>>>>> I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. >>>>>> >>>>>> Sincerely, >>>>>> Logan >>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they will >>>>>>>> reach parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy about >>>>>>>> 1/7 of a human, population parity is likely closer to 2055. >>>>>>>> https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI >>>>>>>> development. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Sincerely, >>>>>>>> Logan. > >>>>>> -- >>>>>> Doug Solomon > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/27042480-016c9cee > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
