Interesting. Nice work getting published in Business Insider! On 1/8/16, Courtney Benson <[email protected]> wrote: > Congrats to Logan! > > http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > > Sent from my iPhone > > >> On Jan 4, 2016, at 7:52 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Congratulations! Interesting projection. >> >> Jim Bromer >> >>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 5:56 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Hi, >>> >>> just wanted to share the joy of getting some publicity, >>> the article about robot population I recently published got picked up by >>> Business Insider: >>> >>> http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 >>> http://www.businessinsider.com.au/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 >>> http://www.techinsider.io/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 >>> >>> happily, >>> Logan >>> >>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Smith <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Once we have human level AGI it has been shown that such an >>>>> intelligence will be capable of achieving near infinite intelligence >>>>> after four years of recursive self improvement (assuming things like >>>>> Moores law holds up). Even a single robot with such an intelligence >>>>> would be capable of enslaving humanity. >>>> Hi John, >>>> >>>> That is indeed a common belief I hear, however it doesn't seem any more >>>> realistic than "grey goo". Wheras "grey goo" is limited by the same >>>> energy inputs as water-based life-forms, thus couldn't really do any >>>> better than a virus/spore. Similarly any individual intelligence is >>>> limited by experience or "wisdom". >>>> >>>> So wheras with intelligence it could become very optimal for a certain >>>> set of functions, >>>> due to the near infinite variability of reality means it would simply >>>> make it overspecialized. >>>> >>>> A simple thought experiment demonstrates: an urban homo-sapien and a >>>> common chimpanzee in a jungle, even though the homo-sapien may be much >>>> more intelligent, the common chimpanzee is much more likely to succeed >>>> in the jungle environment due to greater experience with it. In any >>>> kind of confrontation the common chimpanzee would win due to greater >>>> strength and stamina, only if the chimpanzee was greatly outnumbered >>>> could it be subdued by humans. >>>> >>>> Of course typically humans would use technology/weapons to even the >>>> playing field, >>>> though that requires a vast supporting culture, of people that make the >>>> technology and teach about it's proper use. A single human can only >>>> realistically make a tool from a stone or a stick, it would typically >>>> take hundreds to make metal tools and the kind of infrastructure to >>>> clothe and arm a human to be able to defeat a chimpanzee "on their >>>> own". >>>> >>>> Considering that making a robot is even more difficult, with all the >>>> chip factories, sensor factories, and assembly, it would require >>>> hundreds or thousands of co-operating co-located robots with no >>>> opposition simply to repair themselves and make new host bodies (from >>>> scratch). >>>> >>>> "no man is an island" as the saying goes, even more so for robots. >>>> Even the chimpanzee has the jungle, which is many thousands of >>>> water-based life forms working together. >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Logan >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> Thanks Douglas, so it seems that in Haiti the ratio was 10:1 when they >>>>>> succefully gained their own freedom. So for a robot-initiated >>>>>> freedom revolt, we'd probably be waiting around till 2070 ish -- when >>>>>> (assuming trends continue) 70 times more robots are produced per year >>>>>> than humans. >>>>>> >>>>>> Though in local pockets the 10:1 ratio can be reached sooner, such as >>>>>> due to the whole divide between the rich and the poor, and rich and >>>>>> slightly less rich, as the upper middle class which may not be able to >>>>>> hire large staff of human servants, would instead hire robot servants. >>>>>> In their gated communities the ratio can certainly get to 10:1 or >>>>>> more much faster than waiting for a global revolt. Assuming they would >>>>>> be able to pass the turing test and successfully emulate people, might >>>>>> be able to do a replacement routine, where the gated community becomes >>>>>> 100% robot, while appearing to still have "slave masters" present. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 8:42 PM, Douglas Solomon >>>>>>> <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On 01/03/2016 08:15 PM, Logan Streondj wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> >>>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Depends on your definition of robot. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to >>>>>>>> come up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such a >>>>>>>> worldwide conflict could occur. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as >>>>>>>> many or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point >>>>>>>> there may be enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a >>>>>>>> space for themselves." >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Why would this be the case? >>>>>>> >>>>>>> No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called it >>>>>>> "A Home for Robots or-else Artilect War", simply that before there >>>>>>> are more robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for revolt. >>>>>>> While some estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the >>>>>>> population, I think more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the >>>>>>> height of slavery in America. However in Attica (athens) it seems >>>>>>> at some point more than 90% of the population were slaves. >>>>>>> I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and >>>>>>> other things, >>>>>>> I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have to >>>>>>> look at the mechanics of emancipation. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> One Word: HAITI. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> That *REALLY* pissed-off a powerful bunch of people. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then why >>>>>>>> not just say 2055 and be done with it? >>>>>>> I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> I take science fiction very seriously, >>>>>>> I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Sincerely, >>>>>>> Logan >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they will >>>>>>>>> reach parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy >>>>>>>>> about 1/7 of a human, population parity is likely closer to 2055. >>>>>>>>> https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI >>>>>>>>> development. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Sincerely, >>>>>>>>> Logan. >> >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> Doug Solomon >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> AGI >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: >> https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/27042480-016c9cee >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/11943661-d9279dae > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >
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