Thank you all for your support, It was also picked up by the daily mail UK http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3385045/Rise-machines-Programmer-sci-fi-author-believes-robots-outnumber-humans-25-years.html and several other blogs
It seems it was a combination of factors, such as having a wordpress account that reposted in all the social media streams, and adding a new bit of information on a hot topic, with an easy "spin", though mostly it was that it got retweeted and picked up by a journalist Sam Shead, then he reposted it in bunch of places. I added a bit more about military robots and then the dailymail picked it up. I've also studied writing, which may have helped it be clear and concise. By reading the articles I think people liked it because the logic was easy to follow along. I admit I was somewhat worried that my rather simplistic estimations were inaccurate, so I added on a javascript modeling the robot population growth, though I haven't noticed anyone mention anything in relation to that -- does make it a little more solid a projection, same production of robots as humans by 2040, and robot population may exceed human population by 2055. I intentionally didn't edit my article too much, since it was heavily quoted, so I left the parts they quoted alone, as I feel there is kind of a trust there, that a quote and source is the same. Many news websites use wordpress.com for hosting, so I think they naturally like blogs hosted on wordpress.com for that reason. Something I haven't done but will probably try is maybe commenting (in a helpful and respectful manner) a little to the articles that linked to me. It may also help raise some awareness and clarify some things. Anyways, if that helps anyone get some publicity then I'm happy to have shared it. Though know I've made thousands of posts over the years, and this is the first that's had articles written about it. Sincerely, Logan On Thu, Jan 7, 2016 at 6:00 PM, Mike Archbold <[email protected]> wrote: > Interesting. Nice work getting published in Business Insider! > > On 1/8/16, Courtney Benson <[email protected]> wrote: > > Congrats to Logan! > > > > > http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > > > > Sent from my iPhone > > > > > >> On Jan 4, 2016, at 7:52 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: > >> > >> Congratulations! Interesting projection. > >> > >> Jim Bromer > >> > >>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 5:56 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> > >>> wrote: > >>> > >>> Hi, > >>> > >>> just wanted to share the joy of getting some publicity, > >>> the article about robot population I recently published got picked up > by > >>> Business Insider: > >>> > >>> > http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > >>> > http://www.businessinsider.com.au/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > >>> http://www.techinsider.io/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > >>> > >>> happily, > >>> Logan > >>> > >>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> > >>>> wrote: > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Smith <[email protected]> > >>>>> wrote: > >>>>> > >>>>> Once we have human level AGI it has been shown that such an > >>>>> intelligence will be capable of achieving near infinite intelligence > >>>>> after four years of recursive self improvement (assuming things like > >>>>> Moores law holds up). Even a single robot with such an intelligence > >>>>> would be capable of enslaving humanity. > >>>> Hi John, > >>>> > >>>> That is indeed a common belief I hear, however it doesn't seem any > more > >>>> realistic than "grey goo". Wheras "grey goo" is limited by the same > >>>> energy inputs as water-based life-forms, thus couldn't really do any > >>>> better than a virus/spore. Similarly any individual intelligence is > >>>> limited by experience or "wisdom". > >>>> > >>>> So wheras with intelligence it could become very optimal for a certain > >>>> set of functions, > >>>> due to the near infinite variability of reality means it would simply > >>>> make it overspecialized. > >>>> > >>>> A simple thought experiment demonstrates: an urban homo-sapien and a > >>>> common chimpanzee in a jungle, even though the homo-sapien may be much > >>>> more intelligent, the common chimpanzee is much more likely to succeed > >>>> in the jungle environment due to greater experience with it. In any > >>>> kind of confrontation the common chimpanzee would win due to greater > >>>> strength and stamina, only if the chimpanzee was greatly outnumbered > >>>> could it be subdued by humans. > >>>> > >>>> Of course typically humans would use technology/weapons to even the > >>>> playing field, > >>>> though that requires a vast supporting culture, of people that make > the > >>>> technology and teach about it's proper use. A single human can only > >>>> realistically make a tool from a stone or a stick, it would typically > >>>> take hundreds to make metal tools and the kind of infrastructure to > >>>> clothe and arm a human to be able to defeat a chimpanzee "on their > >>>> own". > >>>> > >>>> Considering that making a robot is even more difficult, with all the > >>>> chip factories, sensor factories, and assembly, it would require > >>>> hundreds or thousands of co-operating co-located robots with no > >>>> opposition simply to repair themselves and make new host bodies (from > >>>> scratch). > >>>> > >>>> "no man is an island" as the saying goes, even more so for robots. > >>>> Even the chimpanzee has the jungle, which is many thousands of > >>>> water-based life forms working together. > >>>> > >>>> -- > >>>> Logan > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected] > > > >>>>>> wrote: > >>>>>> > >>>>>> Thanks Douglas, so it seems that in Haiti the ratio was 10:1 when > they > >>>>>> succefully gained their own freedom. So for a robot-initiated > >>>>>> freedom revolt, we'd probably be waiting around till 2070 ish -- > when > >>>>>> (assuming trends continue) 70 times more robots are produced per > year > >>>>>> than humans. > >>>>>> > >>>>>> Though in local pockets the 10:1 ratio can be reached sooner, such > as > >>>>>> due to the whole divide between the rich and the poor, and rich and > >>>>>> slightly less rich, as the upper middle class which may not be able > to > >>>>>> hire large staff of human servants, would instead hire robot > servants. > >>>>>> In their gated communities the ratio can certainly get to 10:1 or > >>>>>> more much faster than waiting for a global revolt. Assuming they > would > >>>>>> be able to pass the turing test and successfully emulate people, > might > >>>>>> be able to do a replacement routine, where the gated community > becomes > >>>>>> 100% robot, while appearing to still have "slave masters" present. > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 8:42 PM, Douglas Solomon > >>>>>>> <[email protected]> wrote: > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> On 01/03/2016 08:15 PM, Logan Streondj wrote: > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> > >>>>>>>> wrote: > >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> Depends on your definition of robot. > >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to > >>>>>>>> come up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such > a > >>>>>>>> worldwide conflict could occur. > >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as > >>>>>>>> many or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which > point > >>>>>>>> there may be enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a > >>>>>>>> space for themselves." > >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... > >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> Why would this be the case? > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called > it > >>>>>>> "A Home for Robots or-else Artilect War", simply that before there > >>>>>>> are more robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for > revolt. > >>>>>>> While some estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the > >>>>>>> population, I think more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the > >>>>>>> height of slavery in America. However in Attica (athens) it seems > >>>>>>> at some point more than 90% of the population were slaves. > >>>>>>> I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and > >>>>>>> other things, > >>>>>>> I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have > to > >>>>>>> look at the mechanics of emancipation. > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> One Word: HAITI. > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> That *REALLY* pissed-off a powerful bunch of people. > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then > why > >>>>>>>> not just say 2055 and be done with it? > >>>>>>> I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> I take science fiction very seriously, > >>>>>>> I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> Sincerely, > >>>>>>> Logan > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj < > [email protected]> > >>>>>>>>> wrote: > >>>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>>> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they > will > >>>>>>>>> reach parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy > >>>>>>>>> about 1/7 of a human, population parity is likely closer to > 2055. > >>>>>>>>> > https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ > >>>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>>> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI > >>>>>>>>> development. > >>>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>>> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. > >>>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>>> Sincerely, > >>>>>>>>> Logan. > >> > >>>>>>> -- > >>>>>>> Doug Solomon > >> > >> > >> ------------------------------------------- > >> AGI > >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > >> RSS Feed: > >> https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/27042480-016c9cee > >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > > > > ------------------------------------------- > > AGI > > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > > RSS Feed: > https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/11943661-d9279dae > > Modify Your Subscription: > > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
