On 6 Jan 2003, James Rogers wrote:

> I recently put together a human brain equivalent model that takes into
> consideration several aspects of system performance to figure out what
> kind of system configuration we would need to generate a human
> equivalent structure (which I expect would actually be much smarter than
> a human in practice).  For the purposes of real-world projections,
> taking MIPS and GB in the abstract is nigh useless because there are a
> slew of caveats as to how all these components actually perform in real
> systems.

Right, I presented my data as a response to an earlier post (no
data) speculating on the rate of computer processing progress.

> In short, the CPU is almost where we need it to be now, but the memory
> is still way behind the curve.  By the time memory catches up so that we
> can have human equivalent intelligence, we'll have enough extra CPU that
> we'll have human level intelligence that runs much faster than a normal
> human.  Which is to say the curve will be more on the "fast and stupid"
> side of the curve than the "slow but smart" side of the curve if
> balanced for existing architectures.

Although Cyc is well accommodated by the present balance between CPU,
memory and bandwidth offered by a typical white-box server, Cyc will have
to be augmented substantially by commonsense intelligent behaviors before
it can become an AGI - we hope.  Meanwhile Cyc deductive inference
performance scales in almost direct proportion to CPU clock speed so I
believe that the current x86 integer CPU core and memory subsystem
designs suit our approach to AGI.  It also appears that 64-bit architecture will
soon become mainstream just as we bump up against the Linux process
maximum memory ceiling.

-Steve

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Stephen L. Reed                  phone:  512.342.4036
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         download OpenCyc at http://www.opencyc.org
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