--- Brad Wyble <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > On Wed, 9 Feb 2005, Martin Striz wrote: > > > > > --- Brad Wyble <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > >> > >> Hardware advancements are necessary, but I think you guys spend alot of > >> time chasing white elephants. AGI's are not going to magically appear > >> just because hardware gets fast enough to run them, a myth that is > >> strongly implied by some of the singularity sites I've read. > > > > Really? Someone may just artificially evolve them (it happened once > already on > > wetware), and evolution in silico could move 10, nay 20, orders of > magnitude > > faster. > > > No never. Evolution in silico will never move faster than real matter > interacting.
Evolution is limited by mutation rates and generation times. Mammals need from 1 to 15 years before they reach reproductive age. Generation times are long and evolution is slow. A computer could eventually simulate 10^9 (or 10^20, or whatever) generations per second, and multiple mutation rates (to find optimal evolutionary methodologies). It can already do as many operations per second, it just needs to be able to do them for billions of agents. > > But yes it's true, there are stupidly insane emounts of CPU power that > would give us AI instantly (although it would be so alien to us that we'd > have no idea how to communicate with it). However nothing that we'll get > in the next 100 century will be so vast. You'd need a computer many > times the size of the earth to generate AI through evolution in a > reasonable time frame. That's not a question that I'm equipped to answer, but my educated opinion is that when we can do 10^20 flops, it'll happen. Of course, rationally designed AI could happen under far, far less computing power, if we know how to do it. Martin __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
