Hmmm....
The inimitable Mentifex wrote:
http://www.blogcharm.com/Singularity/25603/Timetable.html
2006 -- True AI
2007 -- AI Landrush
2009 -- Human-Level AI
2011 -- Cybernetic Economy
2012 -- Superintelligent AI
2012 -- Joint Stewardship of Earth
2012 -- Technological Singularity
Regarding the 2009 schedule for human-level AGI, based on what I see
in the field and in my own project, it seems somewhat wishful
thinking, though certainly not impossible.
I believe the Novamente design is basically a solid design for AGI,
but there are still plenty of details to be worked out --- and I
believe that even if we got a lot of funding right now, achieving
human-adult-level AGI by 2009 would be about the most optimistic
scenario that is at all plausible.
Unfortunately though, I have to say that we'd have to get lucky to get
there by 2009, even with a lot of funding.
Working out the details of a complex AI design just takes time -- and
I suspect this will be true for any AI design, be it computer science
based like Novamente, or neuroscience based like the designs that
Hawkins, Guillen and others are dreaming of.
Heck, look how long it's taken Microsoft to work out the details of
their new operating system release ;-p ... a far simpler thing, though
admittedly occupying far more lines of code...
**Maybe** of course, there is someone out there with a much simpler
AGI design that will take less long to get fully implemented and
refined -- or maybe there is someone out there with an AGI project
that's much further along... but I have seen no evidence of this...
Next , regarding the 2012 thing, I have a strong feeling that 2012-ism
is going to start seeming very silly sometime around, er, 2013.
And this prediction of mine is intended as valid whether or not we
have a Singularity before 2012 (which I very much doubt).
Please let's restrict discussion on this list to topics more directly
related to Artificial General Intelligence: no 2012-ism!! There are
other lists for that, I'm sure....
I realize list traffic has been light lately -- and I've been too busy
with various sorts of practical work (including AGI work, thankfully)
to post a bunch of messages ... but I'd rather have light list traffic
than off-topic list traffic of this nature!!
thanks
Ben
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