Hi Peter,
I think in all of the categories you listed, there should be a lot of progress, but they will hit a ceiling because of the lack of an AGI architecture.
It is very clear that vision requires AGI to be complete. So does NLP. In vision, many objects require reasoning to recognize. NLP also requires reasoning to interpret metaphors, which are beyond the scope of current parsers.
So the goal is for vision/NLP researchers to work within some AGI framework. Unfortunately a standard framework is unavailable now. We may start such a framework; lying out the common knowledge representation would be most important.
This also shows the need for modularity and divide-and-conquer. AGI sub-problems like vision and NLP are themselves pretty big projects. So it may be unwise to try to solve them all alone.
I think other candidates that have the potential to become AGI are: Cyc, Soar, ACT-R, and other less known cognitive architectures.
YKY
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