Pei Wang wrote:

> ... in this example, there are arguments supporting the
> rationality of human, that is, even if two betting cases
> corresponding to the same expected utility, there are
> reasons for them to be treated differently in decision
> making, because the "probability" in one betting is
> "better supported" than in the other.

Although it's a comforting fit to human intuition, isn't that like
saying that when steering a vehicle, a hard grip on the wheel is somehow
better than a firm grip?  All that matters in such a case is the
direction.

The added utility of the higher confidence is real, but does not apply
to this decision.  Rather it applies to the to the greater context of an
agent always preferring methods that provides higher confidence.

The importance of context, etc., etc.

- Jef

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