Derek Zahn wrote:
Richard Loosemore:
> > a...
I often see it assumed that the step between "first AGI is built"
(which I interpret as a functoning model showing some degree of
generally-intelligent behavior) and "god-like powers dominating the
planet" is a short one. Is that really likely?
Nobody knows the answer to that one. The sooner it is built, the less
likely it is to be true. As more accessible computing resources become
available, hard takeoff becomes more likely.
Note that this isn't a quantitative answer. It can't be. Nobody really
knows how much computing power is necessary for a AGI. In one scenario,
it would see the internet as it's body, and wouldn't even realize that
people existed until very late in the process. This is probably one of
the scenarios that require least computing power for takeoff, and allow
for fastest spread. Unfortunately, it's also not very likely to be a
friendly AI. It would likely feel about people as we feel about the
bacteria that make our yogurt. They can be useful to have around, but
they're certainly not one's social equals. (This mode of AI might well
be social, if, say, it got socialized on chat-lines and newsgroups. But
deriving the existence and importance of bodies from those interactions
isn't a trivial problem.)
The easiest answer isn't necessarily the best one. (Also note that this
mode of AI could very likely be developed by a govt. as a weapon for
cyber-warfare. Discovering that it was a two-edged sword with a mind of
it's own could be a very late-stage event.)
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