J Storrs Hall, PhD wrote:
I'd be interested in everyone's take on the following:
1. What is the single biggest technical gap between current AI and AGI? (e.g.
we need a way to do X or we just need more development of Y or we have the
ideas, just need hardware, etc)
The gap can only be filled by an understanding of the fact that AGI
systems contain a significant amount of complexity (in the complex
systems sense) and have to be treated accordingly.
For details, see Loosemore, R.P.W. (2007). Complex Systems, Artificial
Intelligence and Theoretical Psychology. In B. Goertzel & P. Wang,
Proceedings of the 2006 AGI Workshop. Amsterdam: IOS Press.
2. Do you have an idea as to what should should be done about (1) that would
significantly accelerate progress if it were generally adopted?
The construction of tools implied by the answer to (1) above, as well as
the development of the associated methodology.
3. If (2), how long would it take the field to attain (a) a baby mind, (b) a
mature human-equivalent AI, if your idea(s) were adopted and AGI seriously
pursued?
Impossible to put numbers on this without further work. At the pure
guess level, however, I would say it *could* happen in as little as
(a) 5 years and (b) 8.
4. How long to (a) and (b) if AI research continues more or less as it is
doing now?
It will probably not happen at all if AI research continues more or less
as it is doing now.
Richard Loosemore
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