--- "J Storrs Hall, PhD" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I'd be interested in everyone's take on the following: > > 1. What is the single biggest technical gap between current AI and AGI?
In hindsight we can say that we did not have enough hardware. However there has been no point in time since the 1950's when we knew that at the time. We are in that position today. There is possibly a 6 order of magnitude gap between the size of a cognitive model of human memory (10^9 bits) and the number of synapses in the brain (10^15), and precious little research to resolve this discrepancy. In fact, these numbers are so poorly known that we aren't even sure there is a gap. > 2. Do you have an idea as to what should should be done about (1) that would > significantly accelerate progress if it were generally adopted? Resolving the cost estimate would only let us avoid expensive mistakes like Blocks World or Cyc or 5th Generation or the 1959 Russian-English translation project, all of which began with great enthusiasm and no idea of the difficulty involved. What mistakes are we making now? > 3. If (2), how long would it take the field to attain (a) a baby mind, (b) a > mature human-equivalent AI, if your idea(s) were adopted and AGI seriously > pursued? The question is meaningless. IQ is not a point on a line. On some scales, computers surpassed humans in the 1940's. The goal of AGI is not to build human minds, but to do our work. > 4. How long to (a) and (b) if AI research continues more or less as it is > doing now? It would make not a bit of difference. There is already a US $66 trillion/year incentive to develop AGI (the value of all human labor). Nobody on this list has the One Big Breakthrough. -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=55201946-df9581
