On Dec 26, 2007, at 7:21 AM, Stan Nilsen wrote:
Samantha Atkins wrote:
In what way? The limits of human probability computation to form
accurate opinions are rather well documented. Why wouldn't a mind
that could compute millions of times more quickly and with far
greater accuracy be able to form much more complex models that were
far better at predicting future events and explaining those aspects
of reality with are its inputs? Again we need to get beyond the
[likely religion instilled] notion that only "absolute knowledge"
is real (or "super") knowledge.
Allow me to address what I think the questions are (I'll paraphrase):
Q1. in what way are we going to be "short" of super intelligence?
resp: The simple answer is that the most intelligent of future
intelligences will not be able to make decisions that are clearly
superior to the best of human judgment. This is not to say that
weather forecasting might not improve as technology does, but meant
to say that predictions and decisions regarding the "hard" problems
that fill reality, will remain hard and defy the intelligentsia's
efforts to fully grasp them.
This is a mere assertion. Why won't such computationally much more
powerful intelligences make better decisions than humans can or will?
Q2. why wouldn't a mind with characteristics of ... be able to form
more complex models?
resp: By "more complex" I presume you mean having more "concepts"
and "relevance" connections between concepts. If so, I submit that
wikipedia estimate of synapse of the human brain at 1 to 5
quadrillion is major complexity, and if all those connections were
properly tuned, that is awesome computing. Tuning seems to be the
issue.
I mean having more active data, better memory, tremendously more
accurate and powerful computation. How complex our brain is at the
synaptic level has not all that much to do with how complex a model we
can hold in our awareness and manipulate accurately. We have no way
of "tuning the mind" and you would likely a get a biological computing
vegetable if you could. A great deal of our brain is design for and
supports functions that have nothing to do with modeling or abstract
computation.
Q3 why wouldn't a mind with characteristics of ... be able to build
models that "are far better at predicting future events"?
resp: This is very closely related to the limits of intelligence,
but not the only factor contributing to intelligence. Predictable
events are easy in a few domains, but are they an abundant part of
life? Abundant enough to say that we will be able to make "super"
predictions? Billions of daily decisions are made, and any one of
them could have a butterfly effect.
Not really and it ignores the actual question. If a given set of
factors of interest are inter-related with a larger number of
variables than humans can deal with then an intelligence that can work
with such more complex inter-dependencies will make better decisions
in those areas. We already have expert systems that make better
decisions more dependably in specialized areas than even most human
experts in those domains. I see no reason to expect this to decrease
or hit a wall. And this is just using weak AI.
Q4 why wouldn't a mind... be far better able to explain "aspects of
reality"?
resp: may I propose a simple exercise? Consider yourself to be
Bill Gates in philanthropic mode (ready to give to the world.) Make
a few decisions about how to do so, then explain why you chose the
avenue you took. If you didn't delegate this to committee, would
you be able to explain how the checks you wrote were the best
choices in "reality"?
This is not relevant to the question at hand. Do you think an
intelligence with greater memory, computational capacity and vastly
greater speed can keep track of more data and generate better
hypothesis to explain the data and tests and refinements of those
hypotheses? I think the answer is obvious.
Deeper thinking - that means considering more options doesn't it?
If so, does extra thinking provide benefit if the evaluation
system is only at level X?
What does this mean? How would you separate "thinking" from the
"evaluation system"? What sort of "evaluation system" do you
believe can actually exist in reality that has characteristics
different from those you appear to consider woefully limited?
Q5 - what does it mean, or how do you separate thinking from an
evaluation system?
resp: Simple example in two statements:
1. Apple A is bigger than Apple B.
2. Apples are better than oranges.
Does it matter how much you know about apples and oranges? Will
deep thinking about the DNA of apples, the proteins of apples, the
color of apples or history of apples, help to prove the second
statement? Will deep analysis of oranges prove anything?
Will fast and accurate recall of every related fact about Apples and
oranges help in our proof of statement 2? Even if the second
statement had been 2. Apple A is better than Apple B, we would have
had trouble deciding if the superior color of A is greater than the
better taste of B.
This is a silly argument as (2) is a subjective value judgment having
nothing to do with more or less intelligence.
This is what I mean by evaluation system. Foolish example? Think
instead "economic prosperity" is better than "CO2 pollution" if you
want to be real world.
Q6 - what sort of "evaluation system" can exist that has
characteristics differing from what I consider woefully limited.
resp: I'm not clear what communicated the idea that I consider
either the machine intelligence or the human intelligence to be
woefully limited. I concede that machine intelligence will likely
be as good as human intelligence and maybe better than the average
human. Is this super?
Was the "woefully inadequate" in reference to a personal opinion?
Those are not my words, I consider human intelligence a work of art,
brilliant.
You assert it will not be "super" but you have not made an effective
argument for your position. Perhaps you will in the website you
mention but I doubt it.
Exactly what is it about human minds that makes us better decision
makers and more capable than any other creatures on the planet? Do
you believe that we are some pinnacle of intelligence and nothing can
come along significantly smarter than us? You seem to be arguing such
a position.
If you do not believe this then why would you think it is impossible
to build an AGI significantly smarter than us?
- samantha
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