Hmmm. I'd suspect you'd spend all your time and effort organizing the people. Orgs can grow that fast if they're grocery stores or something else the new hires already pretty much understand, but I don't see that happening smoothly in a pure research setting.
I'd claim to be able to do it in 10 years with 30 people with the following provisos: 1. same 30 people the whole time 2. ten teams of 3: researcher, programmer, systems guy 3. all 30 have IQ > 150 4. big hardware budget, all we build is software ... but I expect that the hardware for a usable body will be there in 10 years, so just buy it. Project looks like this: yrs 1-5: getting the basic learning algs worked out and running yrs 6-10: teaching the robot to walk, manipulate, balance, pour, understand kitchens, make coffee It's totally worthless to build a robot that had to be programmed to be able to make coffee. One that can understand how to do it by watching people do so, however, is absolutely the key to an extremely valuable level of intelligence. Josh On Friday 08 February 2008 11:46:51 am, Richard Loosemore wrote: > My assumptions are these. > > 1) A team size (very) approximately as follows: > > - Year 1: 10 > - Year 2: 10 > - Year 3: 100 > - Year 4: 300 > - Year 5: 800 > - Year 6: 2000 > - Year 7: 3000 > - Year 8: 4000 > > 2) Main Project(s) launched each year: > > - Year 1: AI software development environment > - Year 2: AI software development environment > - Year 3: Low-level cognitive mechanism experiments > - Year 4: Global architecture experiments; > Sensorimotor integration > - Year 5: Motivational system and development tests > - Year 6: (continuation of above) > - Year 7: (continuation of above) > - Year 8: Autonomous tests in real world situations > > The tests in Year 8 would be heavily supervised, but by that stage it > should be possible for it to get on a bus, go to the suburban home, put > the kettle on (if there was one: if not, go shopping to buy whatever > supplies might be needed), then make the pot of tea (loose leaf of > course: no robot of mine is going to be a barbarian tea-bag user) and > serve it. > ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=94603346-a08d2f
