Matt, On 9/7/08, Matt Mahoney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- On Sun, 9/7/08, Steve Richfield <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > >1. I believe that there is some VERY fertile but untilled ground, which > >if it is half as good as it looks, could yield AGI a LOT cheaper than > >other higher estimates. Of course if I am wrong, I would probably accept > >your numbers. > > > >2. I believe that AGI will take VERY different (cheaper and more > >valuable) forms than do other members on this forum. > > > >Each of the above effects are worth several orders of magnitude in effort. > > You are just speculating.
Of course. Aren't we all here on this forum? The fact is that thousands of very intelligent people have been trying to > solve AI for the last 50 years, and most of them shared your optimism. Unfortunately, their positions as students and professors at various universities have forced almost all of them into politically correct paths, substantially all of which lead nowhere, for otherwise they would have succeeded long ago. The few mavericks who aren't stuck in a university (like those on this forum) all lack funding. Perhaps it would be more fruitful to estimate the cost of automating the > global economy. I explained my estimate of 10^25 bits of memory, 10^26 OPS, > 10^17 bits of software and 10^15 dollars. I don't understand the goal or value here? Perhaps you could explain? >You really should see my Dr. Eliza demo. > > Perhaps you missed my comments in April. > > http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/2008/04/search/ZWxpemE/sort/time_rev/page/2/entry/5:53/20080414221142:407C652C-0A91-11DD-B3D2-6D4E66D9244B/ Apparently I did. Sorry about that. Here I have pasted in the posting with embedded contemporary comments. --- Steve Richfield <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Why go to all that work?! I have attached the *populated* Knowledge.mdb file > that contains the knowledge that powers the chronic illness demo of Dr. > Eliza. To easily view it, just make sure that any version of MS Access is > installed on your computer (it is in Access 97 format) and double-click on > the file. From there, select the Tables tab, and click on whatever table > interests you. I looked at your file. Would I be correct that if I described a random health problem to Dr. Eliza that it would suggest that my problem is due to one of: - Low body temperature - Fluorescent lights - Consuming fructose in the winter - Mercury poisoning from amalgam fillings and vaccines - Aluminum cookware - Hydrogenated vegetable oil - Working a night shift - Aspirin (causes macular degeneration) - Or failure to accept divine intervention? = First, my complements on your careful reading of the knowledge base. = Yes, there is a pretty good chance that you would be asked about some of these things, as various of these things seem to underlie most chronic illnesses. Is that it, or is there a complete medical database somewhere, = WYSIWYG, though this is only maybe 1% of a fully populated health database. This stuff is just there for demo. For a 1% demo, it works amazingly well. Further, I presume that people would embed generous hyperlinks into the explanations, so that Pub Med and other medical databases would be just a mouse click away. or the capability of acquiring this knowledge? = Only machine knowledge that has been carefully crafted by humans. As I have explained in a number of postings, certain key things, like how people commonly express symptoms and the carefully crafted questions needed to drill down, are NOT on any web site or medical text, so the services of an experienced expert is absolutely required. Plans of others to "mine the Internet" (or Wikipedia) are absolutely doomed to failure because this information is so completely lacking. No AGI would be able to compose this knowledge unless they had the real-world experience with real-world people to know how they express things. In short, many AI and AGI plans are quite obviously hopeless because they lack access to this information. Do you have a medical background, = Yes. or have you consulted with doctors in building the database? = Yes. BTW, regarding processes that use 100% of CPU in Windows. Did you try Ctrl-Alt-Del to bring up the task manager, then right click on the process and change its priority? = Not that specifically, though I did try the Windows API to do the same, and got back an error code that indicated that the most problematical task (NaturallySpeaking) had set a bit to keep other tasks from adjusting its priority. I presume that the Task Manager would have simply called the same API but probably failed to provide the return code. I expect to abandon speech I/O in the future even though it works pretty well, because no one seems to want to bet their success in overcoming their problems on the random screwups of a speech recognition program. Without speech I/O, there is no speed "problem". This is apparently one of those "great ideas" that just can't make it in the real world. > In any case, what does Dr. Eliza do that hasn't been done 30 years ago? It carries on a NL conversation to drill down and identify an intervention to correct a problem in a complex domain that is NOT completely understood. Further, its operation is guided by disconnected fragments of machine knowledge that can be composed by many people. Sure, each and every piece of Dr. Eliza is the same as something back in the 60s & 70s, but no one ever put this particular combination of pieces together this way, or any combination together to achieve a comparable result. I am personally convinced that if Joseph Weizenbaum hadn't written *Computer Power and Human Reason* in 1976 (and spread widely his erroneous opinions during the preceding decade, including in a lecture that I personally attended), that Dr. Eliza would have already been written by 1980, and the Internet version of the Singularity would have been history just as soon as the Internet came into being. Steve Richfield ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=111637683-c8fa51 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
