Matt Mahoney wrote:
--- On Tue, 10/14/08, Charles Hixson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
It seems clear that without external inputs the amount of
improvement
possible is stringently limited. That is evident from
inspection. But
why the "without input"? The only evident reason
is to ensure the truth
of the proposition, as it doesn't match any intended
real-world scenario
that I can imagine. (I've never considered the
"Oracle AI" scenario [an
AI kept within a black box that will answer all your
questions without
inputs] to be plausible.)
If input is allowed, then we can't clearly distinguish between self improvement
and learning. Clearly, learning is a legitimate form of improvement, but it is
not *self* improvement.
What I am trying to debunk is the perceived risk of a fast takeoff singularity
launched by the first AI to achieve superhuman intelligence. In this scenario,
a scientist with an IQ of 180 produces an artificial scientist with an IQ of
200, which produces an artificial scientist with an IQ of 250, and so on. I
argue it can't happen because human level intelligence is the wrong threshold.
There is currently a global brain (the world economy) with an IQ of around
10^10, and approaching 10^12.
Oh man. It is so tempting in today's economic morass to point out the
obvious stupidity of this purported super-super-genius. Why would you
assign such an astronomical intelligence to the economy? Even from the
POV of the best of Austrian micro-economic optimism it is not at all
clear that billions of minds of human level IQ interacting with one
another can be said to produce some such large exponential of the
average human IQ. How much of the advancement of humanity is the
result of a relatively few exceptionally bright minds rather than the
billions of lesser intelligences? Are you thinking more of the entire
cultural environment rather than specifically the economy?
- samantha
-------------------------------------------
agi
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