Lukasz Stafiniak wrote:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081224215542.htm
Nothing surprising ;-)
Nothing surprising?!!
8-) Don't say that too loudly, Yudkowsky might hear you. :-)
The article is a bit naughty when it says, of Tversky and Kahnemann,
that "...this has become conventional wisdom among cognition
researchers." Actually, the original facts were interpreted in a
variety of ways, some of which strongly disagreed with T & K's original
intepretation, just like this one you reference above. The only thing
that is conventional wisdom is that the topic exists, and is the subject
of dispute.
And, as many people know, I made the mistake of challenging Yudkowsky on
precisely this subject back in 2006, when he wrote an essay strongly
advocating T&K's original intepretation. Yudkowsky went completely
berserk, accused me of being an idiot, having no brain, not reading any
of the literature, never answering questions, and generally being
something unspeakably worse than a slime-oozing crank. He literally
wrote an essay denouncing me as equivalent to a flat-earth believing
crackpot.
When I suggested that someone go check some of his ravings with an
outside authority, he banned me from his discussion list.
Ah, such are the joys of being speaking truth to power(ful idiots).
;-)
As far as this research goes, it sits somewhere down at the lower end of
the available theories. My friend Mike Oaksford in the UK has written
several papers giving a higher level cognitive theory that says that
people are, in fact, doing something like bayesian estimation when then
make judgments. In fact, people are very good at being bayesians,
contra the loud protests of the I Am A Bayesian Rationalist crowd, who
think they were the first to do it.
Richard Loosemore
-------------------------------------------
agi
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