On Fri, Jan 2, 2009 at 11:12 AM, Jim Bromer <jimbro...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> If extensive tests showed that people overwhelmingly made judgments >> that were Bayesianesque then this conjecture would be important. The >> problem is, that since the numerous possible influences of previous >> learning has to be ruled out, I would suspect that any test for >> Bayesian-like reasoning would have to be kept so simple that it would >> not add anything new to our knowledge. >> >> If judgment was that simple most of the programmers in this list would >> have really great AGI programs by now, because simple weighted >> decision making is really easy to program. The problem occurs when >> you realize that it is just not that easy. >> >> I think Anderson was the first to advocate weighted decision making in >> AI and my recollection is that he was writing his theories back in the >> 1970's. >> >> Jim Bromer > > One other thing. My interest in studies of cognitive science is how > the results of some study might be related to advanced AI, what is > called AGI in this group. The use of weighted reasoning seems > attractive and if these kinds of methods do actually conform to some > cognitive processes then that would be a tremendous justification for > their use in AGI projects - along with other methods that would be > necessary to actually simulate or produce conceptually integrated > judgement. > > But, one of the major design problems with tests that use statistical > methods to demonstrate that some cognitive function of reasoning seems > to conform with statistical processes is that since the artifacts of > the statistical method itself may obscure the results, the design of > the sample has to be called into question and the proposition > restudied using other design models capable of accounting for possible > sources of artifact error. > Jim Bromer > I did not mean to direct this criticism at any one study or any one person. Not only can the design of a study be questioned on the basis of whether or not the question tends to lead to the kind of results that the study purports to show, but the methods of the analysis can also leave artifacts or other subtle influences on the results as well. This not only goes for statistical studies, but could be found in logical studies, numerical studies, linguistic studies, image-based studies and so on. Ok, this isn't news but some people haven't learned it in yet. Jim Bromer ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=123753653-47f84b Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
