Meng-Ying

We are talking about estimating the variance of a set
of samples where spatial dependence exists. 

The classical statistical unbiassed estimator of the
population variance is s-squared which is the sum of
the squared deviations from the mean divided by the
relevant degrees of freedom. If the samples are not
inter-correlated, the relevant degrees of freedom are
(n-1). This gives the formula you find in any
introductory statistics book or course.

If samples are not independent of one another, the
degrees of freedom issue becomes a problem and the
classical estimator will be biassed (generally too
small on average). 

In theory, pairs of samples beyond the range of
influence on a semi-variogram graph are independent of
one another. In theory, the variance of the difference
betwen two values which are uncorrelated is twice the
variance of one sample around the population mean.
This is thought to be why Matheron defined the
semi-variogram (one-half the squared difference) so
that the final sill would be (theoretically) equal to
the population variance.

There are computer software packages which will draw a
line on your experimental semi-variogram at the height
equivalent to the classically calculated sample
variance. Some people try to force their
semi-variogram models to go through this line. This is
dumb as the experimental sill is a better estimate
because it does have the degrees of freedom it is
supposed to have.

I am not sure whether this is clear enough. If you
email me off the list, I can recommend publications
which might help you out.

Isobel
http://geoecosse.bizland.com/books.htm

 --- Meng-Ying  Li <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: 
> Hi Isobel,
> 
> Could you explain why it would be a better estimate
> of the variance when
> independance is considered? I'd rather think that we
> consider the
> dependance when the overall variance are to be
> estimated-- if there
> actually is dependance between values.
> 
> Or are you talking about modeling sill value by the
> stablizing tail on
> the experimental variogram, instead of modeling by
> the calculated overall
> variance?
> 
> Or, are we talking about variance of different
> definitions? I'd be
> concerned if I missed some point of the original
> definition for variances,
> like, the variance should be defined with no
> dependance beween values or
> something like that. Frankly, I don't think I took
> the definition of
> variance too serious when I was learning stats.
> 
> 
> Meng-ying
> 
> > Digby
> >
> > I see where you are coming from on this, but in
> fact
> > the sill is composed of those pairs of samples
> which
> > are independent of one another - or, at least,
> have
> > reached some background correlation. This is why
> the
> > sill makes a better estimate of the variance than
> the
> > conventional statistical measures, since it is
> based
> > on independent sampling.
> >
> > Isobel
>  

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