In a message dated 10/22/2008 11:47:36 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

He's  good, he's right 55% of the time.
He's sucks, he's wrong 45% of the  time.
What's so good, he's only right 5% of the time.
 
 
Re:That 5%.    "The Black Swan" theory deals with  occurrences of much less 
(theoretically < 1%, based on "conventional wisdom"  over hundreds of years).  
But when/if they occur, the results are  momentus.
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