My feeling is, hopefully we do not get a storm surge and the flooding is not so bad. But... if it is a worse case scenario and you need to be rescued, then you are not only in danger but you put those who may need to rescue you in danger. For me, I removed my "valuables" to the extent I really have any, set the alarm and I hope for the best. (And I have insurance and took video of what the house looked like before leaving for the insurance) I have a young child and I would not want to put anyone in danger. I think the issue with this storm is how slow moving it is and how much rain and surge it could generate. I saw Deal Lake overflow from just heavy rain. The looting is hopefully what the curfew is meant to prevent.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Claire Davids <claire.davids@...> wrote: > > That was one of my worries too - looting..... My husband is away, my sister > is arriving today with her 14 month old, i have 5 yr old and a dog and a > cat..... my husband says leave but i just don't know - i also don't want > to leave it too late. > > can't tell you how much i'm looking forward to a drive to newark and back > this afternoon with all the evacuees on the road!! > > > > On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 9:04 AM, <cbrianwatkins@...> wrote: > > > I am sending my fiance, mother in law, and my shihtzu's west, to east > > brunswick > > > > Myself and my big dog will be staying behind, if....I mean when we lose > > power, my alarm system will be down. I don't want to run the risk of someone > > breaking in and cleaning me out > > > > I'm fully supplied for 15days > > > > > > > > > > Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Claire Davids <claire.davids@...> > > Sender: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com > > Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2011 08:39:57 > > To: <AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com> > > Reply-To: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com > > Subject: Re: [AsburyPark] Fwd: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am > > > > is anyone planning on jumping ship? i'm torn, i don't want to be the > > melodramatic and go racing out of here but also don't want to be the idiot > > who stays and has a problem... I on the 500 block (so 5 blocks back from > > the > > water) - curious what other people are doing?? my plan is to stay put but > > i > > could be swayed. > > > > On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 8:12 AM, <asburysteve@...> wrote: > > > > > ** > > > > > > > > > steve herman, asbury tower > > > > > > > > > > > >____________________________________ > > > From: rick@... > > > To: asburysteve@... > > > Sent: 8/26/2011 7:46:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time > > > Subj: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am > > > > > > Approaching StormTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE > > > WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY COAST > > > > > > HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT NEW JERSEY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY > > > AFTERNOON > > > > > > HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW JERSEY. > > > HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NEW YORK CITY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND > > > > > > Membership Feedback > > > > > > AUGUST 26TH - 5:00 AM > > > HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NJ COAST. PREPARATIONS TO > > > PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION > > > At 5:00 am Hurricane Irene was located about 700 miles south of the NJ > > > coast with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane has deepened > > > overnight as evidenced by a drop in central pressure (943mb) however this > > > deepening has translated into a more expansive wind field rather than > > > higher > > > winds around the center. Hurricane force winds now extend outward from > > > the center by almost 100 miles and tropical storm force winds extend > > > outward > > > about 300 miles. > > > Forecast guidance overnight has changed very little as far as the track > > > is concerned and Irene is still forecast to track over or just east of > > the > > > NJ coast. At this point there should be little focus on the track since > > > Irene is such a large storm, there will be major effects from the storm > > > regardless. > > > One important trend overnight is to accelerate Irene just a bit. This > > > has a significant impact in that it is going to bring the worst of > > Irene's > > > wrath closer to that all important Sunday 7am high tide. Irene's closest > > > passage looks to NJ looks to be between 8am and 11am and any further > > > acceleration is going to bring that window right into the high tide > > period. > > > > > > Rain will begin Saturday afternoon. Rain and increasing wind will begin > > > around or just after midnight Saturday night. The worst of the hurricane > > > will occur between 4am and Noon on Sunday when wind gusts of 80mph may > > > occur. > > > Winds will back to the west after Irene passes our latitude and remain > > > gusty Sunday afternoon but skies will likely begin to clear. > > > Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts approaching 15 > > > inches, are expected throughout the state. > > > A storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is forecast by the National Weather Service > > > which will result in dangerous coastal flooding, complete washover of > > > beaches and the potential for damage to boardwalks, piers and other > > > beachfront > > > structures. > > > At this point you should have hurricane preparations well underway. The > > > States of New Jersey and New York have both declared a state of emergency > > > as have most local governments. Please heed the advice and > > recommendations > > > being provided. > > > AUGUST 25TH - 5:00 PM > > > HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NJ COAST FROM CAPE MAY TO SANDY > > > HOOK > > > No changes to the 9:00 AM forecast at this time > > > AUGUST 25TH - 9:00 AM > > > She is big.....She is mean.....She is Hurricane Irene.....and like it or > > > not, she's coming our way. > > > At 8:00 am, Hurricane Irene was making her way through the northwest > > > Bahamas with highest winds of 115 mph. Irene has been going through an > > ERC > > > (eye replacement cycle) which has prevented additional strengthening, but > > > that > > > process is nearly complete and the hurricane will likely gain strength > > > today and tonight. > > > Forecast guidance has shifted the forecast track of Irene decidedly to > > the > > > west. The track spray of the models are now all very close to the NJ > > > shore. A couple have a landfall in Ocean City, MD and then northward > > along > > > the Delaware River, a few more are right over the Jersey Shore and a few > > > others are just offshore. > > > The National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the North > > > Carolina coast....additional watches are likely further north today, > > > tonight and tomorrow. The earliest time for a Hurricane Watch in New > > Jersey > > > is > > > late tonight or tomorrow morning. > > > We are still 2 1/2 days away from impact, but given the trends of the > > > forecast guidance, our area should prepare for, and expect, hurricane > > > conditions on Saturday night and Sunday with the possibility of a direct > > > landfall > > > on New Jersey, which has not occurred since 1903. > > > Assuming that Irene reaches Category 4 status later today, strikes > > eastern > > > North Carolina on Saturday afternoon as a Category 3 storm and then > > > tracks over or just east of our area as a Category 1 storm, wind gusts of > > > 80mph > > > are possible Sunday morning with perhaps 90 mph south of Atlantic City. > > > Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected throughout the area. > > > Rain will begin Saturday afternoon well in advance of Irene > > > A storm surge of 3 to 4 feet is possible on the Jersey Shore which will > > > cause coastal flooding in the back bays. Along the oceanfront, the > > > landscape has changed dramatically over the last 15 years with sand > > > replenishment > > > and the installation of dune protection systems on many beaches. The > > > beaches are wider than then were when previous hurricanes passed by in > > > 1944, > > > 1954, 1960 and 1985 and caused boardwalk damage. The wider beaches will > > > certainly help, but the elevation has not changed so complete washover of > > > the > > > beaches is likely. The dune protection systems will be put to the test by > > > Irene. > > > Irene will be north of the area around mid-afternoon on Sunday at which > > > time strong east winds will shift to the west and skies will rapidly > > clear. > > > > > > Today is a good day to begin preliminary preparations such as removing or > > > securing loose outdoor items, fueling automobiles, and ensuring > > > flashlights are working. > > > I will continue to provide a daily e-mail update through Sunday however, > > > I will post updates on the web site from without sending an additional > > > e-mail so check back from time to time. I will post the next update > > around > > > 4:00. > > > > > > AUGUST 24TH - 7:00 PM - BRIEF UPDATE > > > Model data since midday has been indicating a track closer to the NJ > > coast > > > with the consensus of the data showing Irene passing within 50 miles of > > > the coast before making landfall on central Long Island. One of the most > > > trusted long range models is even closer than that. The models runs > > > tonight will be viewed with much interest. Obviously, a track this close > > > really > > > increases the concern for us for damaging winds and coastal flooding. > > > Full update in the morning, but if this westward trend holds overnight, > > the > > > > > > forecast tomorrow will be a more dire than what was issued today. > > > AUGUST 24TH > > > At Noon, Hurricane Irene was moving through the southeastern Bahamas with > > > a clearly defined eye and maximum winds of 115mph. Irene will likely > > > continue to slowly strengthen today and Thursday and probably reach its > > > peak > > > strength of around 140mph sometime on Thursday. > > > Forecast guidance has trended slightly east and that is reducing the > > > possibility of a direct hit on New Jersey...but that does not diminish > > the > > > fact > > > that we will have a very large and powerful hurricane moving through the > > > nearby offshore waters. > > > Best track estimate now is for Irene to be near the North Carolina Outer > > > Banks on Saturday afternoon and near eastern Long Island on Sunday > > > afternoon. > > > For the Jersey Shore, even though rain will likely begin during the day > > on > > > Saturday, the worst effects are likely to be between midnight Saturday > > > night to early afternoon on Sunday. > > > If Irene takes the estimated track described above, the Jersey Shore > > > would experience very heavy rains, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, tidal > > > flooding > > > and complete washover of the beaches. Please remember we are still days > > > away from impact and there are still other track options to > > > consider.....the > > > above is just to give an idea of what would occur should Irene take that > > > type of track. > > > Will continue to monitor and update daily, more frequent updates will > > > occur should anything change. > > > AUGUST 23RD > > > At Noon, Hurricane Irene was headed towards the southeastern Bahamas with > > > maximum sustained winds of 100mph. After strengthening last evening, > > > Irene's intensity has leveled off due to interaction with the mountainous > > > terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti to the south of the storm > > > center. > > > As Irene continues to move further away, another round of strengthening > > > should occur. > > > Forecast guidance has shifted a bit to the east and is moving Irene a bit > > > faster. Given the latest data, landfall appears likely along the eastern > > > North Carolina coast between Morehead City and the Outer Banks on > > Saturday > > > afternoon. > > > From that point, the big question is how much of an easterly component > > > will Irene take along its general northward motion. A track slightly east > > > of > > > due north will bring a dangerous track from Norfolk, VA to Ocean City, MD > > > to along the Jersey Shore to Long Island. A bit more easterly component > > > brings the hurricane back over the water east of Norfolk, 50 to 100 miles > > > east of NJ followed by landfall on eastern Long Island or southeastern > > New > > > England. > > > Those two scenarios appear to be range we are looking at today. An > > > inland track to our west does not appear likely as this time. The big > > > questions > > > are how strong is the western Atlantic ridge which will act to keep the > > > hurricane close to the coast versus how strong is a trough moving into > > the > > > area from the west which will try to push Irene offshore. > > > Although landfall on North Carolina will certainly weaken Irene, she will > > > not weaken as rapidly as must tropical systems do when they pass north of > > > North Carolina. The prevailing westerlies associated with the jet stream > > > that usually reside over our area are displaced well to the north; > > > therefore, Irene will not be sheared apart and will experience a much > > more > > > favorable upper air environment than that which is climatologically > > > expected at > > > our latitude. > > > Large swells will likely arrive on the coastal waters on Friday. No > > > matter what track Irene takes, rain and wind will follow on Sunday. The > > > question is whether the winds are just gusty squalls or very strong and > > > damaging. > > > Tides are astronomically high over the weekend, so coastal flooding will > > > be a concern. > > > As Irene moves through the Bahama islands today and Wednesday, conditions > > > appear favorable for strengthening and Irene certainly has the potential > > > to be a Category 4 hurricane (135 mph + winds) at on Wednesday and > > > Thursday. > > > Will continue to monitor trends and guidance...all are urged to keep > > > abreast of the latest updates > > > > > > © Tri-State Storm Watch. All rights reserved. > > > If you are unable to read this e-mail, please go to: > > >_http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast_ > > > (http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast) . > > > Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA > > > If you do not wish to receive messages from us,_click here_ > > > ( > > > > > http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/livesite/unsubscribe.php?email_address=asburysteve@aol > > > .com) . > > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > ------------------------------------ Yahoo! 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