>>You got it
right, GOI will not be the looser.
*** I said that?
I must be losing my mind!
Or then again, maybe it is not ME.
At 10:39 AM -0600 1/18/06, Rajen Barua wrote:
Because you said it.
>That would be an unfortunate outcome, in which Assam will be the loser.
RB
----- Original Message -----From: Chan MahantaTo: Rajen Barua ; assam@assamnet.org ; Roy, SantanuSent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:30 AMSubject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The CONCLUSION>You got it right, GOI will not be the looser.*** Will you explain WHY?At 9:28 AM -0600 1/18/06, Rajen Barua wrote:
>That would be an unfortunate outcome, in which Assam will be the loser.
You got it right, GOI will not be the looser.
But how can one who is already a looser (Assam) be a looser again? You mean 'more looser'?
RB
----- Original Message -----
From: Chan Mahanta
To: assam@assamnet.org ; Roy, Santanu
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:13 AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The CONCLUSION
Hi Santanu:
Of all the analyses, yours make the most sense, and I agree with most of it. I also was not sure how Utpal's points correlate with the ones you make. But be that as it may, allow me to chime in here:
As I see it, the GOI thinks of negotiations with ULFA as basically a process of waiting till the latter is ready to surrender - the only talk it wants is to check out if they are ready for that - and if that ever happens, they have a stdandard face saving formula that they will offer - bits of special powers for the state, maybe inner line permit, lots of central funds (to fatten the leaders) and a political process to return them to power in the state elections.
>As I see it, the ULFA has no reason to accept such an offer at this point.
**** I will have to agree with what you observe above. I harbor similar concerns. The Naga non-negotiations and the stand-still is an example of things to expect. However what is unknown here is whether ULFA will submit itself to a prolonged period of non-ability to put any pressure on GoI, by resumption of violence again that is, if the talks do not progress. That would be an unfortunate outcome, in which Assam will be the loser. It therefore behooves the people of Assam--at least those who want to see an end to the hostilities with some essential and measurable gains for Assam, to put political/public opinion pressures on GoI . Similarly on that segment of Assam's establishment and intelligentsia, who is opposed to meaningful and substantive governmental reforms
and regaining of controls over its resources, either willfully or unwittingly.
________________________________________________________________________________
*** I wrote the above on Monday, on my way back to St.Louis. Since then, we have already seen things changing, like ULFA's notice to OIL ( or was it ONGC? ), and an editorial in the Sentinel of yesterday's, in which it criticizes ( rightly, for a change) the ghee-belly-governor-general's 'bad-cop' talk, contradicting Delhi's willingness to engage in talks with ULFA for a negotiated settlement of the conflict. While it could be given the benefit of the doubt that Dilli's right hand does not know what its left is doing, a frequent phenomenon, I will be loathe to accept it. It looks more and more like that ol' "good-cop, bad-cop" routine. Does ULFA see the handwriting on the wall? I will have to believe they do, very well.
And it does not bode well.
________________________________________________________________________________
Like we discussed earlier , here arises the importance of a concerted political effort both on ULFA's part as well as that segment of Assam which is sympathetic to ULFA's efforts on behalf of Assam, as an essential concurrent movement.Reluctantly, I am resigned to the notion that the tiny segment that is beholden to Delhi's interests should be ignored as irrelevant and a complete waste of effort.
But those of us who do care, have an important role to play: To help move the efforts for a negotiated along, by mobilizing public support. One such effort would be by offering ideas for a reformed Assam governance, based on real ( asc opposed to the desi kind) democratic concepts and principles.
c-da
At 10:18 PM -0600 1/13/06, Roy, Santanu wrote:
Utpal:
I agree with your vision.
The way I see it - in the short run, there is almost nothing substantive that one can get the GOI to accede to in terms of effective decentralization of power or plebscite or any other adjustment to the political relationship between Delhi and Assam. The babus and polticians that run Delhi are under almost no pressure at all.
Chandan-da suggested that the pressure might come from the fact that New Delhi wants to look like a big world power and carry international prestige & it can't do that with an armed rebellion and suppression of liberty in one part of its country. I actually don't think that India has any such ambition. India want to be China in terms of international leverage. China routinely suppresses even peaceful peasant movements by brute force. International power follows from aggregate economic and military might. It does not require internal democracy or liberty. Countries like today's India, China, current Russia, Iran, Turkey are not very civil (I know I am going to be lynched for saying this)- they do not aim to project their power through moral superiority of their internal social order.
The only way a rebellion in Assam would threaten India's ascendency would be if it made India look unstable. But like Chechnya or even the Kurdish border in Turkey, Assam is almost a detached fringe of Indian society. It cannot destabilize India as of now.
Therefore, I see no closure in sight.
I also agree with you that hope lies in history. None of us concievably imagine what the geopolitical map of the world will look like 20 or 30 years from now. To take advantage of historical opportunities (like your third world war), one needs to have a strong civil movement at the grassroot level - a cohesive nationality formation process. That is much harder than armed insurrection.
Santanu.
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Malabika Brahma
Sent: Sat 1/14/2006 10:57 AM
To: assam@assamnet.org
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The CONCLUSION
Ram da asked some very practical questions. We all know that the GOI is controlled by politicians who gives a damn if Assam or NE bleeds to death.
Here is the fact (as stressed by Santanu )
Those who control GOI are politicians who care less for the people of Assam and NE and care less for the lives of soldiers that die in NE. So achieving independence through an armed struggle is next to impossible.
The only way independence can be achieved are:
1. By making constitutional amendment to include "instrument of secession" in Indian constitution and influencing upon the GOI to hold a plesbicite in Assam/NE and hope that majority of the people vote for secession. But this can not be achieved unless there is move to build a consensus in the National level.
2. By hoping that a 3rd world war breaks out and GOI finds it impossible to manage the present political India. Actually in my opinion 2nd world war is what helped India win its independence from the British. It became too expensive for Britain to maintain its colonies because of its involvement in the war. This again is highly unlikely.
May be Chandan da or Mike da knows some other Practical Means of achieving independence that we are missing.
That's why I think "Independence of Assam/NE is excellent to have but not possible to achieve". So why build castles in the air ?
But yes, if we can force GOI to hold a plesbicite, that will be the greatest victory. What will be the outcome of the plesbicite , is left to speculation of course.
But one thing we have to understand, for Government of India , ULFA and NDFB may not count, but for Assam and NE, they are our boys after all. When one ULFA/NDFB member gets eliminated, one of my brother or sister is getting eliminated.
Utpal
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