Excellent. I agree to your line of thinking.
Mridul
>From: Rajib Das <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: [email protected]
>Subject: Re: [Assam] GOI-ULFA negotiations.
>Date: Wed, 1 Jun 2005 14:08:25 -0700 (PDT)
>
>Kudos for the only pragmatic point of view (IMHO) on
>this whole debate.
>
>Also given the kind of biases each one of us carry, my
>orientation would mostly be focused on economics and a
>little bit of politics. My two bits:
>
>a. The central government "bribe" that should come
>about as a natural course of buying peace. While the
>central government's policies resulted in the problems
>that gave rise to militancy, the militants did not
>quite help the cause of the people by keeping them
>devoid of economic progress for so long for so little.
>This bribe should be for the people not the militants
>(unlike the last time around when the militants
>(SULFA) got the bonanza they are living up to this
>day).
>
>Just doing pure number crunching, this sum should be
>no less than 10 times the "bribe" given to Nagaland
>(Rs. 4000 crores). This amount therefore should be no
>less than Rs. 40,000 crores.
>
>b. Renegotiating the royalty on oil (and if possible
>all past oil outflow) to result in a further sizable
>inflow of money. I don't know the economics of this -
>perhaps someone can elucidate.
>
>c. The opportunity cost of militancy - for the people
>to make up lost time and lost opportunities with more
>funds to address more issues in far less time. This
>opportunity cost should also be sizable.
>
>d. To negotiate the SE Asia corridor initiative in a
>manner that as a national infrastructure build up it
>takes more priority over most other Indian issues for
>the next 5 years. To execute the SE Asia corridor in a
>manner that the BJP government formulated - actually,
>in a manner that it is beneficial optimally for the NE
>states. In fact to negotiatiate a NE development tax
>on all merchandise crossing either way into
>perpetuity. I am sure, in the economics of it, though
>I have not analyzed it so far, there is margin for
>both mainland India and the SE Asia nations to benefit
>over the status quo right now and yet this development
>tax can be paid. For reference, Pakistan will earn $
>800 million for the oil pipeline that will pass
>through it from Iran to India. And the road network
>for merchandise flowing through is no different.
>
>e. To use this as an opportunity to break up the
>politician - militant - current Marwari business nexus
>and bring changes in governance that will bring big
>business houses to invest in the state as well as
>enable local entrepreneurship to grow successfully.
>
>This nexus has monopolised business and
>entrepreneurship in the state in a manner inimical to
>the populace at large.
>
>And it can be broken by the government (both state and
>federal) carrying with them in their negotiations big
>business houses such as Wipro or Reliance Steel to
>come in, give them enough sops to make it attractive
>to invest in the state and throw on them enough social
>strictures (whom to give low end contracts etc. and
>whom not to).
>
>On politics, I am sure there are way more competent
>opinion givers. I am sure the Bangladeshi problem will
>be solved in a manner that does not get colored by the
>patronage that the current militants get or what
>certain political parties think are votebanks.
>
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Roy, Santanu" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > To: <[email protected]>
> > Sent: Wednesday, June 01, 2005 11:57 AM
> > Subject: [Assam] GOI-ULFA negotiations.
> >
> >
> > > Suppose for a moment we set aside the question of
> > our own views on the ULFA, its demands and the
> > history of its movement.
> > >
> > > Assume that at some point in time the
> > representatives of the govt of India and the ULFA
> > actually meet across the table for negotiations -
> > just like the Naga or Bodo insurgency leaders did.
> > You will agree that in that event - what will be
> > most important will be the actual nitty gritty of
> > the negotiation itself and that there is a
> > possibility that there will be a negotiated
> > settlement. History teaches us that such settlements
> > often look very different from the formal charters
> > of the organizations.
> > >
> > > In fact, there is little doubt that the
> > organization ULFA, its historical perspective and
> > its full set of demands are controversial - there is
> > no general consensus on them. In particular, a large
> > section (without trying to quantify how large) do
> > not actually sympathise with the ULFA or its demand
> > for sovereignty (just as a large section actually
> > do).
> > >
> > > However, on specific issues that the ULFA
> > initially stood for, popular opinion is often quite
> > close to ULFA's perspective. For example, my own
> > observation most people actually sympathise with the
> > fact that Assam is virtually in some sort of a
> > colonial socio-economic relationship with mainland
> > India - whether or not they think of it as a
> > deliberate imposition or simply an outcome of
> > history to which the Assamese have contributed.
> > Similarly, most people actually believe that Assam's
> > options of selling its natural resources to the
> > world market at fair prices are actually cut off.
> > That, de facto, Assam has had little access to its
> > geographical neighbors on the east through whom it
> > could have bought its imports at much cheaper price
> > than it currently does from rest of India. There are
> > many others - including those related to
> > preservation of socio-cultural rights of indigenous
> > people.
> > >
> > > Though I am not sure the ULFA is actually
> > interested in this, the strongest popular support
> > for ULFA during an actual negotiation will be on
> > issues about which there is relatively strong
> > convergence of opinion among the people of Assam.
> > The stronger the public opinion, the greater the
> > bargaining power of the ULFA on such issues. There
> > is, therefore, an important role for building public
> > opinion among the people of Assam on a core set of
> > issues for negotiation with the government of India.
> > >
> > > Let me clarify, I am not suggesting that the
> > people or their intellectuals formulate ULFA's
> > agenda. The ULFA is a partisan political
> > organization with its own aims to which we may or
> > may not subscribe. But "the people at large" can
> > nevertheless extract important advantages from any
> > negotiation by independently building consensus on
> > certain core demands that they may hope to see
> > reflected in any final settlement. And even though
> > it smacks of collective opportunism, to not do so,
> > would (almost by definition) be a historical
> > opportunity foregone.
> > >
> > > Santanu.
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
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>
>
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