We see gas trading in the $8 per mcf range lately. Near term oil contrects on the NYMEX have been running around $106 per bbl, and at the wellhead Bakken crude is probably running in the low $90 range now. If your 6:1 ratio is right, $8 gas is roughly energy equivalent to $48 crude. That seems a little low--crude is either overpriced or nat gas is underpriced based only on energy content.
Boone Pickens has been saying in his ads that if we had the infrastructure to deliver nat gas to drivers, cars could run on that at about 60% of the cost of gasonine made from crude. The US has a large supply of nat gas and Pickens' basic argument is correct. The catch is that nat gas is really expensive to move from the wellhead and deliver to motor vehicles at a service station. Apparently its basically impractical and all but impossible to truck raw nat gas from the wellhead to a refinery. Hence all the flaring in the Bakken. The only practical way to move it is via a pipeline to a nat gas processing plant, ideally a plant pretty close to the source. W/O the infrastructure investment you are out of luck. On the plus side, setting up a small-scale nat gas processing plant is apparently not nearly as complex nor costly as setting up a small- scale oil refinery. It looks to me that the equipment needed to get the plant running can basically be trucked in and set up to operate within the space of a few months if a company sets its mind to it. There is a ready market for nat gas to heat homes,but the fueling of mobile powerplants is tricky, because of the changes needed in the service stations as well as in the vehicles themselves. So Picken's plan to substitute nat gas for crude-derived gasoline is not quite as easy or quick as he makes it out to be. The use of nat gas by homowners and industry is pretty much a known. Nat gas prices at any point in time are largly supply determined, and even a small increase in supply can cause prices to drop significantly. But if you suddenly create a new demand for nat gas to power motor vehicles, nat gas will soon not be as cheap as it is currently relative to the price of crude and ordinary gasoline. Still the US has a large supply of nat gas that can be tapped more heavily pretty easily, and more of this would quickly come out of the ground if nat gas prices increased substantially above current levels. I wish there were free lunches but there are not. David On Sep 26, 10:50�pm, DepME <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Yes, a great discussion and thanks for the link Liz. > > Just so I know I have this correct.... > > 3600 MCF of gas would be approximately 600 barrels of oil. �Correct? > > On Sep 26, 12:45�pm, Bri-VA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > The conversion ratio is a generalization between the relative value > > for producing electricity as some plants are able to use multiple fuel > > sources to produce electricity. �They think in terms of dollars per > > BTU to make a decision on what they will burn. �Obviously, the high > > cost of oil make natural gas a more profitable source for producing > > electricity. �This is why Natural gas should have good growth > > potential in the near future and also why many leases are being signed > > for natural gas production in other states that formerly were being > > ignored. �6 to 1 is the general rule as I have heard it. > > > On Sep 25, 4:00�pm, DepME <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Can anyone give me a general rule to convert the MCF gas figure into > > > equivalent barrels of oil.- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Bakken Shale Discussion" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/bakken-shale-discussion?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
