On Oct 25, 2014 9:19 PM, "Gavin Andresen" <gavinandre...@gmail.com> wrote:
> We had a halving, and it was a non-event.
> Is there some reason to believe next time will be different?
In november 2008 bitcoin was a much younger ecosystem, with less liquidity
and trading, smaller market cap, and the halving happened during a quite
stable positive price trend.
In the next months competition might easily drive down mining margins, and
the reward halving might generate unexpected disruption in mining
operations.
Moreover, halving is not strictly necessary to respect the spirit of
Nakamoto's monetary rule and its 21M limit. At the beginning of the 3rd
reward era (block 420000, in 2017) a new reward function could become
effective R(b)=k*2^(-h*b/210000) where b is the block number and R(b) is
the reward. The parameters h and k can be calibrated so that R(419999)=25
and sum_b{R}=21M
If the increased issuance speed in the third era is considered
problematic, then each era could have its own R_e(b)=k_e*2^(-h_e*b/210000)
fitted to the amount of coins to be issued in that era according to the
current supply rule, e.g. fitting k_e and h_e to R(419999)=25 and
sum_{b}_e=2,625,000.
Would such a BIP have any chance to be considered? Am I missing something?
Nando
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