----- Original Message -----
From: "John D. Giorgis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2003 10:01 PM
Subject: Re: Empire Of Lies
At 04:46 PM 11/12/2003 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote:
>--- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> I'll agree fully that the average person in Iraq is
>> better off now than a
>> year ago. But, the overwhelming majority in Iraq
>> sees the US as an
>> occupier, not a liberator. And, their opinion of
>> us, as measured in polls,
>> is rapidly deteriorating.
>> Dan M.
>
>Dan, I have to tell you that I frankly don't believe
>this. As you know, I have personal reasons for
>keeping a _very_ close eye on the situation in Iraq,
>and I frankly don't trust the poll results that you
>reported - they don't agree with any other poll that
>I've seen, and they don't agree with the consensus of
>people on the ground whom I've spoken to either.
Indeed, as I noted in a previous post, _The Economist_ published poll
results that contradict Dan's impressions just this week.
Here it is again:
A survey out this week revealed that, while most endorse democracy and
women's rights, many wonder whether democracy can work in Iraq. Most would
like some form of Islamic rule-and want the coalition forces out. But
three-quarters of Iraqis also think that in five years they will be better
off.
How does this contradict what I said? I was talking about the viewpoint of
the US, not their views of their own future.
Let me quote a set of answers from the poll at:
www.taemag.com/docLib/20030905_IraqpollFrequencies.pdf
1) Do you think that Iraq will be a much better country, somewhat better,
somewhat worse or a lot worse five years from now?
much better 31.7%
somewhat better 38.0%
somewhat worse 13.2%
a lot worse 7.4%
16. Over next five years will -The United States
Help Iraq 35.5
Hurt Iraq 50.2
17. Over next five years will -The United Nations
Help Iraq 50.2
Hurt Iraq 18.5
If these answers came from two different polls, then one might be tempted
to state that the polls contradicted each other. But, its from the same
sample group; the questions are taken from the same questionnaire. Indeed,
it sounds as though this might be very poll that the economist quotes.
Another thing to note is that this, as well as the other polls I've
mentioned, were taken last August. There are indications that attitudes
have deteriorated since then. It will be interesting to see the trends
when these various polling companies come out with their results.
Now, it is possible that all of the polls are inaccurate; I'd be willing to
believe that there might be something to be said about techniques that work
well in the US or Europe not being as robust in Iraq. But, I would like to
see why other techniques of understanding are superior.
Finally, it should be noted that, as skeptical as the people are about the
US, a third wanted us out in 6 months, and a quarter wanted us out in a
year, and a third wanted us out in 2+ years (roughly). So, the feelings
were still at least mixed in August. Putting the results together, there
have to be some people who think the US will hurt Iraq over the next 5
years but still don't want us to leave too soon.
Dan M.
_______________________________________________
http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
