On 5 Jan 2004, Gautam Mukunda <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> said
.... We are also asking people working in Iraq to work under
extreme time pressure. People in the CPA routinely work 100 hour
weeks, as do the contractors there. ....
In other words, the Bush Administration has limited the numbers of
people available to the Coalition Provisional Authority and to
contractors. It has placed a handicap on past US success. It has
made a US defeat more likely; a US victory more expensive.
When people work long weeks under extreme time pressure, they are more
likely to make mistakes. That is why the Royal Air Force grew so
concerned about pilot fatigue during the Battle of Britain. That is
why nuclear plant operators are limited in the amount of time they may
work.
(This is not the kind of fatigue that comes from staying up 48 or 60
hours, as soldiers and others often do, but the kind of fatigue that
comes from weeks and months of heavy effort. In World War II,
researchers for the US Army found that US soldiers' military
efficiencies, which peaked after about 90 days in combat, dropped off
after about 150 days.)
Of course, long hours are heroic for those doing non-critical jobs.
The hours show the advantage of learning, since people tend to do well
at what they have learned, so long as a small number of mistakes do
not matter.
And, indeed, it does not matter whether someone who writes reports
will occasionally write `cut costs' as the third rather than the
fourth recommended priority; the occasional error is outweighed by
spreading fixed costs over longer hours.
However, the occupation, governance, and rebuilding of Iraq are
critical. Mistakes matter. For example, people in the Coalition
Provisional Authority have to negotiate with clan leaders, often using
translators of dubious quality and security, and decide to what extent
particular leaders should be supported or hindered. This kind of
activity requires judgement -- and while fatigued people often will do
right, they are more likely to make mistakes than when rested.
Fatigue not only causes problems among those making political
judgements; it can plague those fixing a broken steam line in an
oil-fired electric power plant. To get it right, they may have to
repeat the repair. (This possibility is based on a private
communication about the root cause of a mistaken fix on a line in a
nuclear power plant, not in an oil-fired power plant; but the point is
the same: smart people can make dumb mistakes when fatigued, even if
usually they do all right.)
When a governing authority takes responsibility for repairing an
oil-fired power plant, and that repair is delayed, the authority looks
less competent than it should. In the case of Iraq, this delays the
Iranian and Libyan governments deciding they are going to have to deal
with the US government on terms more to the liking of the US
government. The delay increases the possibility that the US
government will agree to a more corrupt, authoritarian, and
theocratic indigenous government than it would have otherwise.
Before the war in Iraq, the Bush Administration had months to prepare.
It could and should have planned to find and employ enough people so
that those doing critical work would not `routinely work 100 hour
weeks'. Too many ill judgements result from that kind of effort.
Moreover, the Coalition Provisional Authority and the various
contractors have been in place now for more than six months: even if
the Administration made incompetent decisions before the war, it
should have seen and acted on the matter since then.
When Gautam says that people `routinely work 100 hour weeks', others
will infer this is the result not of a minor error, but from a major
administrative incompetency. He is making a statement that,
regardless of his personal intent, amounts to a very harsh attack on
the Bush Administration.
According to a transcript and translation of the latest tape
attributed to Osama bin Laden, which I just read, bin Laden opposes
changes in educational policy among Palestinians and other Arabs that
would encourage children to become more tolerant. He is against both
the official `roadmap' for peace supported by the US government and
others, and he is against the unofficial proposals for peace made
recently in Geneva. This is what the US and others are up against.
While everyone can and will tolerate a fair number of mistakes by
people in the Coalition Provisional Authority and by US contractors,
the more mistakes they make, the more difficult the advance of US
(and, in this case, European, Russian, and UN) policy.
As I said, the claim is from Gautam. As an American patriot who wants
the US to succeed, I hope he is wrong; but I fear he is right.
--
Robert J. Chassell Rattlesnake Enterprises
http://www.rattlesnake.com GnuPG Key ID: 004B4AC8
http://www.teak.cc [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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