----- Original Message ----- From: "John D. Giorgis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Monday, October 11, 2004 3:41 PM Subject: Re: brin: My big salvo
> At 02:37 PM 10/11/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote: > >> >The monsters have a huge advantage going in, folks. With home bases > >> >in Confederate and rural states, they get up to 30 extra electoral > >> >votes. > >> > >> 30 Extra? > > > >I'm not sure it is 30, but Bush has the advantage that his voters, on > >average, have higher weighed votes than Kerry voters. > > As I pointed out in my Electoral College Analysis reply to Byron, this is a > popular misconception that just plain isn't true. This is because, > Democrats get 3 "charity" EV's from DC, DE, and VT (somewhat offsetting AK, > MT, ND, SD, WY)and dominate the lower end of the 4 EV tier with HI, RI, ME > and somewhat Democrat-trending NH. > > For example, if one assigns all of the States on the basis of the 2000 > Presidential vote, and divides 2003 population by 2004 electoral votes, you > get: > 461,913 Blue Staters per Electoral Vote > 453,567 Red Staters per Electoral Vote If one does something just slightly different, one sees a more significant difference. Look at the states where the difference in the popular vote is > 5%. There are 20 states with 200 electoral votes for Bush, and 15 states with 200 electoral votes for Gore. This leaves 141 votes in the "swing states". In the Bush states, there are 494k voters per electoral vote, while in the Gore states, there are 550k. This is a much more significant difference. I didn't cherry pick 5% either. I tried 10%, but that left too many "swing state" votes. Even so, the same trend was there. Again, using your analysis for 2004, one gets similar results. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
