> -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of Doug Pensinger > Sent: Sunday, March 19, 2006 7:45 PM > To: Killer Bs Discussion > Subject: Is it just me.... > > Is it just me or does anyone else see that the major reason there is an > insurgency in Iraq is our (the U.S.) pressence?
I don't see it as that black and white. Our presence helped fuel the insurgence. The stupidity of the initial policy gave it a chance to flourish and grow. But, I don't see our leaving as ending it. At the present time, the US is the controlling force in Iraq. It does have trouble suppressing the insurgency, no doubt, but it prevents other forces from being dominant. The present goals of the US, getting the Iraq armed forces trained to the point where they can at least hold their own with militias and insurgents and to nudge the political factions into a coalition government. >Everyone seems to agree that Al Qaida is provoking the sectarian violence, >and that they consider the U.S., not Iraq, their enemy. AQ certainly considers the US an enemy. But, they also see moderate Arab governments as enemies, or at least pawns of the US. They are not inherently opposed to the people of Iraq, but they are inherently opposed to Iraq developing into a moderate Arab state, such as Jordan >If we leave, they loose most of their > purpose there and maybe the insurgency goes away. If that happens, and the parliament actually runs the company, then Bush would have succeeded in Iraq. Tom Friedman had two very good columns on Iraq in the last couple of weeks. Unfortunately, he's now premium content at the NY Times, so I can't quote him exactly. In one of his columns he looks at three possible outcomes in Iraq. First, he states that there is still some chance that a coalition government will form, and the Iraqi troops will be well trained enough to be the strongest force in Iraq...at least enough to hold their own against insurgents and militias. This is the best possible outcome. Second, if we withdraw, and the outcome is civil strife/civil war, the middle outcome would be seen. It would be a mitigated disaster, if you would. The Iranian influence on the Shiites would be tempered by that natural Persian/Arab distrust (which goes back centuries). The influence on/acceptability by the Sunni's by AQ would lesson, without the US to hold up as occupiers. The conflict would be bloody, with significant human rights violations by the militia common place (e.g. death squads, mass killings of civilians), but it would probably not draw in other nations. The third alternative is that we sit there and "babysit" the disintegration for years to come. We'll always hope that things will get better, but we'll still be identified as the one to make them worse. Obviously, this analysis tends to lead one to conclude that we can't just stay in Iraq. Yet, it isn't a call for a quick, immediate withdrawal. Rather, it seems to call for a transition from the US being the controlling force to Iraqi forces controlling Iraq. Ideally, of course, it would be the forces belonging to the elected central government. More realistically, both militia power and the power of elected representatives would need to be considered in Iraq. That is probably the best case scenario we can now hope for. Worst case is a civil war that turns very ugly, drawing neighboring countries into the fight. I do not think the Sunni governments around Iraq would stand by and let Sunni civilians be killed by the tens of thousands, for example. One final point: it appears that we finally have competent people on the ground in Iraq. Training the Iraqi military and having an ambassador who actually understands the region are gigantic steps over our initial foolishness. If we implemented the present strategy, if Bush used the post war plan developed by the State Department from the very beginning, it is probable that things would be significantly better than they are now. Indeed, history may show that Bush succeeded, through his arrogance, in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
