Ronn! Blankenship wrote: > At 09:04 AM Monday 6/9/2008, John Garcia wrote: > >> On Fri, Jun 6, 2008 at 3:13 PM, Alberto Monteiro <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> wrote: >> >> >>> John Garcia wrote: >>> >>>> Now that it looks like it's McCain vs. Obama (listed in alphabetical >>>> order) I was wondering what you all think of this matchup. I'm especially >>>> interested in what >>>> our friends from outside of the USA think. >>>> >>>> >>> Here in Brazil it seems that McCain will easily win, and that Obama >>> is like a fringe candidate, just there to "prove" that Dems aren't >>> racist bigots (and Hillary was there just to "prove" the non-sexism). >>> >>> Alberto Monteiro >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l >>> >>> >> Hmmm..... >> That's interesting. Last summer, someone asked me who I thought would be the >> next President and I replied >> "Some rich white guy". Now that I've heard Obama, I do think that he has a >> very good chance of being elected. >> Just how many voters will either vote for McCain or stay home is unknown. >> Not very many people are willing to give >> what may be seen as a "racist" answer to pollsters. >> > > > > Is the implication that voters must either vote for Obama or be > bigots, iow, the only reason anyone would not vote for Obama is > because he is black and they are racist? > > > . . . ronn! :) > I don't know exactly what John Garcia intended, but I took this to be a reference to the well known Bradley Effect (sometimes called the Wilder Effect) in which the polls project a higher vote for black candidates than what ultimately materializes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect I have trouble explaining this phenomenon without using racism, but others may be more ingenious than I. However, I think there is some evidence that it won't play such a big factor this year. At least in the primaries within the Democratic Party it looks to me like pre-election polls have been generally accurate within their margins of error. Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien TANSTAAFL [EMAIL PROTECTED] Linux User #333216 "Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives." -- John Stuart Mill _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
