On Tue, Jun 10, 2008 at 10:11 AM, Kevin B. O'Brien <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Ronn! Blankenship wrote: > > At 09:04 AM Monday 6/9/2008, John Garcia wrote: > > > >> On Fri, Jun 6, 2008 at 3:13 PM, Alberto Monteiro < > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >> wrote: > >> > >> > >>> John Garcia wrote: > >>> > >>>> Now that it looks like it's McCain vs. Obama (listed in alphabetical > >>>> order) I was wondering what you all think of this matchup. I'm > especially > >>>> interested in what > >>>> our friends from outside of the USA think. > >>>> > >>>> > >>> Here in Brazil it seems that McCain will easily win, and that Obama > >>> is like a fringe candidate, just there to "prove" that Dems aren't > >>> racist bigots (and Hillary was there just to "prove" the non-sexism). > >>> > >>> Alberto Monteiro > >>> > >>> _______________________________________________ > >>> http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l > >>> > >>> > >> Hmmm..... > >> That's interesting. Last summer, someone asked me who I thought would be > the > >> next President and I replied > >> "Some rich white guy". Now that I've heard Obama, I do think that he has > a > >> very good chance of being elected. > >> Just how many voters will either vote for McCain or stay home is > unknown. > >> Not very many people are willing to give > >> what may be seen as a "racist" answer to pollsters. > >> > > > > > > > > Is the implication that voters must either vote for Obama or be > > bigots, iow, the only reason anyone would not vote for Obama is > > because he is black and they are racist? > > > > > > . . . ronn! :) > > > I don't know exactly what John Garcia intended, but I took this to be a > reference to the well known Bradley Effect (sometimes called the Wilder > Effect) in which the polls project a higher vote for black candidates > than what ultimately materializes. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect > > I have trouble explaining this phenomenon without using racism, but > others may be more ingenious than I. However, I think there is some > evidence that it won't play such a big factor this year. At least in the > primaries within the Democratic Party it looks to me like pre-election > polls have been generally accurate within their margins of error. > > Regards, > > -- > Kevin B. O'Brien TANSTAAFL > [EMAIL PROTECTED] Linux User #333216 > > "Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are > conservatives." -- John Stuart Mill > _______________________________________________ > http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l > That is what I was referring to. Thanks for clearing that up. john _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
