> -----Original Message----- > From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On > Behalf Of Chris Frandsen > Sent: Friday, January 23, 2009 7:56 PM > To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion > Subject: Re: Which oil patch? > > Which oil patch are you talking about?
You know, the one that Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Weatherford, Pathfinder, Phoenix, Ryan, Tucker, Great Guns Logging, and a number of other smaller wireline and MWD companies log in. >Offshore drilling is not feasible at the 60-80 dollar range >as was proven by the fact that over 66 million acres under lease have not >been drilled. When oil was $9.80/barrel back in '98, I developed tools that were running offshore on oil rigs. I know folks who had to bid projects, and who were told what range the field had to make money at. For example, back in '00, when prices went back over $20 barrel, any new field had to be justified at $15/barrel. And, a number of them were offshore. >I believe the last > dry hole offshore in Alaska cost $150 million. If it was a rank wildcat, that's possible. But, the US has been developing offshore fields for longer than I've been in the business (25+ years). >My wife's small share > of oil rights in west Texas were not opened up until we hit the 80+ > range and at least one of those wells was depleted in six months. That's a real old field. In traditional Texas fields, yields are low. Reopening old wells is a iffy business. Once a well is shut in, it tends to restart at a much lower production rate and be much easier to go dry quickly. > Can we agree that the price of oil is being manipulated? There is no data that suggest that. The biggest player in the marker (OPEC at 40% market share) has watched helplessly as oil prices hit the floor several times during supply gluts. The oil field has had downturns that no other industry I'm familiar with has. I've been through 50%, 80% and 50% layoffs during three downturns. It's true that there are fields that are profitable at $150/barrel that are not profitable at $80/barrel. But, anyone who has lived through the ups and downs of oil prices over the last 25 years knows that spikes are followed by troughs. Remember, it takes a long time to develop a field. From seismic to a developed field can take 10 years. No one in their right mind would authorize a field that is only profitable if the latest spike holds. That's stupid beyond belief. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
