On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 8:14 PM, John Williams <jwilliams4...@gmail.com>wrote:
> On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 7:26 PM, Doug Pensinger<brig...@zo.com> wrote: > > > If he was the only one saying that there was a problem you might have > > a point, but as the vast majority of economists said that there was a > > huge problem > > Economists are no better at predicting the future than anyone else. > How many economists do you know that got rich investing? The vast > majority of economists do no better than average at investing. That's like asking how many coal miners got rich by fishing. The real question would be how many people get rich by investing based on economic theory, a much harder question to answer. As for Bernanke, he's in a position where his predictions can be somewhat self-fulfilling. What I think you are really arguing is that correlation clearly doesn't imply causation when it comes to economic predictions by influential people. Nick
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