On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 8:35 AM, Nick Arnett<nick.arn...@gmail.com> wrote:
> As for Bernanke, he's in a position where his predictions can be somewhat > self-fulfilling. I don't know about that, but the fact is, most of his predictions were wrong. So far, he has missed all the important calls. But people seem to have short memories. As I said, if you predict a recovery every year, eventually you will be right. What I did not mention, is that many people will only remember the last prediction, especially if that is the one that Bernanke uses to proclaim his triumph in a speech. > What I think you are really arguing is that correlation > clearly doesn't imply causation when it comes to economic predictions by > influential people. No, not really. I am arguing what I wrote, which is that economists are no better than the average person at predicting the future of a large economy. _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
