--- Gautam Sorry, this is utter malarkey. Bush had the Iraqis' future in the palm of his hand. Their liberation was hours away. And yes, we VIGOROUSLY urged the rebellion. He had only to say nothing and they would be free. He FIERCELY ordered Schwarzkopf not to move another inch. And tha cable traffic from Riyadhe frantically demanding that move, was the proximate reason.
As for Iran.... EVERY report and public opinion poll... even from Europeans... says that America and americans are hugely popular among the common people, especially the young. (Studies show that the LESS we are perceived as supporting local elites, the more popular we are.) Nobody is asking the Iranians to rebel per se. They have a quasi democracy that THEY have to fix. It has teetered at the brink of major reform many times and will (I feel confident) finally tip toward full democracy, with or without our help. We helped the MULLAHS a couple of years ago, when that beta second-string over-rated fool Condi Rice actually allowed her dimwitted boss to howl "axis of evil" JUST as a major attempt at reform loomed in Iran. The Europeans were stunned. The ONLY effect of that speech was to tip the scales in the Mullahs' favor, absoultely guaranteeing that we could not call upon the Iranians as allies against Saddam. Idiocy! If you were to name Saddam's worst nightmare, it would have been peace between two old friends... and his worst enemies. It would have made elimninating him a cake walk, with ZERO american casualties. Bah. > I find your confidence in this matter to be...odd. > You rant about President Bush's encouragement of a > rebellion against Saddam Hussein and failure to > support them in 1991. The actual facts of the > extent > of his encouragement (very minor) don't really > square > with your descriptions, but so what? Here, you > _want_ > us to do the same thing - urge these people rebel > against a brutal, tyrannical government, but not > actually invade and overthrow the government (which > is > what is actually _necessary_ to overthrow a modern > government willing to use force to stay in power, as > the Iranian government surely is). Other than your > belief that it is so, and contrary to all evidence > of > the extent to which the Iranian government is > willing > to use quite ruthless methods to maintain its > position > on power, what _evidence_ supports your position > that > it would be so easy to topple the Iranian > government? > And what, exactly distinguishes this position from > President Bush's in 1991? > > I have studied political science informally for my > entire life, and formally for 5 years, with another > 5 > coming up. If I was as certain about _anything_ in > foreign policy as you are about _everything_, Dr. > Brin, I'd be...a really poor political scientist. > The > first lesson taught to _very serious student of > politics is that we are limited in what we know and > what we can predict. Basic causality is often > impossible to determine, even in retrospect. I can, > for example, lay out multiple equally-convincing and > explanations for the First World War, only the most > important event of the 20th century. If, _even in > retrospect_ it is impossible to determine something > as > basic as "why did the countries of Europe fight this > massive conflict" I find your certainty about the > _future_ impact of hypothetical actions implausible, > at best. > > A very incomplete list of the problems with your > belief would be: > 1. What if the government didn't _want_ to give up > power and used its secret police to preserve its > position - what then? > 2. If it were so easy to overthrow the Iranian > government, why hasn't the (popular) opposition done > it already? > 3. Why do you think that an apology by the US is the > most important thing in the world for Iranians? > What > evidence we have suggests that the average Iranian > _already has_ a very favorable opinion of the US, > and > (in fact) might even have supported the invasion of > Iraq (Saddam Hussein was not beloved in Iran). What > plausible reason is there that an apology from the > President (for what, exactly?) would somehow cause > these people, who presumably have other concerns in > their lives, to overthrow their government? > > > ===== > Gautam Mukunda > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > "Freedom is not free" > http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com > > > > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > New and Improved Yahoo! Mail - 100MB free storage! > http://promotions.yahoo.com/new_mail > _______________________________________________ > http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l > _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
