Poker Wisdom of the Day - "Winning isn't your job. Making
good decisions is your job." Mike Caro
Nelayan, here is your Championship Poker Guide
Part 4 - All about Odds - Part 2 of 4
Example #2 "The straight draw"
You start with a Jack of Spades and a Ten of Spades. You
get a rainbow flop with a Queen of Spades, a Three of
Diamonds, and a Nine of Clubs. You've got a straight
draw.
Lesson 1: What are my chances of hitting it on the
next card?
Same as before, but with different outs. A King or
an Eight will complete your hand. There are presumably
four of each left in the deck. You've got 8 outs. The
chance of getting one of them on the turn is 8 over
47, because there's 47 cards left in the deck. That
comes out to about .170, or around 17%.
Lesson 2: I didn't get it on the turn! What are my
chances now!?
There's still 8 cards left in the deck that'll help
you, but 46 cards left in the deck. That's 8 over 46.
It changes to .174. It's improved to a whopping 17.4%!
Lesson 3: I should of thought about my total chances
first, I'm such an idiot. What are my chances of
getting that card on the turn OR the river?
Once again we'll have to calculate the chances of a
King or Eight NOT appearing, so we can do it like
the last problem (in this case, {39/47} X {38/46}).
Or, since we've already figured out our chances in
the previous two lessons, we can just invert the
probabilities and multiply 'em. You had a .170 chance
on the turn, and a .174 on the river. By inverting,
I mean subtracting them from one. Now we've got .830
and .826! Multiply and get .686! That's our chance
of NOT hitting our card at all. So invert it again
and get .314, or 31.4%.
More odds please
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To your success,
May all your Pots be Monsters!
Dan
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