Hello, There have been some really excellent points raised by others (informed consent, feasibility, etc), but I would like to share a story about another time humans tried to release a virus on a wild population in order to further an arguably noble goal:
In the 1850s European rabbits were introduced in Australia for sport hunting. They quickly did what bunnies do and started to become a real problem. In the 1950s, scientists decided to introduce myxoma virus to Australia, which is 90-99% fatal for European rabbits, but less lethal for the native rabbits. They intentionally released this virus and in the first year the mortality rate was 99.8% for the European rabbits. Yay, right??? Unfortunately, in the subsequent year the mortality rate fell to 25% and steadily continued to fall until it was lower than the reproductive rate of the European rabbits. The host-virus interaction played itself out: less-virulent viruses arose and resistant rabbits were selected for. To me it seems unwise to assume a replication competent virus (engineered or not) would refrain from mutating and adapting upon release, especially over the time course that would be required to infect all 7 billion+ humans on this planet. To me, I feel our options are (1) reach herd immunity through natural infection and accept the preventable deaths of many millions of people or (2) continue with non-pharmaceutical interventions (mask wearing, distancing, etc) until we can vaccinate enough people to reach herd immunity and hopefully by that time we have robust testing and treatment options available for those who continue to fall ill after we reach herd immunity. We as humans did something amazing by producing multiple safe and effective vaccines in less than one year, and I would like us to continue trying to save as many lives as possible by employing these vaccines as widely as possible. Anyways, take care. I know the pandemic is hard on all of us. Best regards, Jessica On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 6:15 AM Patrick Shaw Stewart <patr...@douglas.co.uk> wrote: > I agree with those who say that A and B are usually incompatible. > > If we're like chickens-in-a-barn-that-have-been-infected-with-bird-flu, > the virus very rapidly becomes more virulent (hospital and care-home > infections?). It's hard for a virus to infect your nose and throat > quickly, and then stop. > > In the medium term the herd will build up some immunity and then we'll > become more like wandering albatrosses: the virus has to keep us on the > move if it's going to get itself near another susceptible host. > > IMO the way a *respiratory *virus tries to "have its cake and eat it" - > that is, get as much of both A and B as possible - is to develop thermal > sensitivity. I.e. infect nose and throat but keep out of lungs and brain : > > https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0389/v1 > > > > Thanks, Patrick > > > On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 9:46 PM Edwin Pozharski <pozharsk...@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> I guess for such vehicle to be "extremely contagious" (or contagious at >> all for that matter) it should be capable of rapidly multiplying inside the >> host, so that it outruns immune system mediated destruction for at least >> some time in order to be present in high enough concentration to >> effectively spread via aerosols. Given the range of immunodeficiencies >> present in any population, you are essentially guaranteed to kill at least >> some people whose immune system will not be able to cope with rapidly >> multiplying virus. You can theoretically fine tune the lethality of such >> virus to make sure that number of people you thus murder will be less than >> those that die either in no vaccine or traditional vaccination scenario, >> but that would be ethical equivalent of that modern crypto fascist >> suggestion that we just have to take it easy until herd immunity is >> established, even though few million grandparents will die in the process >> while the rest of us enjoy indoor dining. >> >> >> >> On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 12:33 PM Jacob Keller <jacobpkel...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> It would seem to me that it should be possible to generate versions of >>> the Covid virus that would: >>> >>> A. be extremely contagious and yet >>> B. be clinically benign, and >>> C. confer immunity to the original covid virus. >>> >>> If, then, this virus could be released, with appropriate "kill switch" >>> safeguards built in, would this not solve the world's pandemic problems? Is >>> there any reason, practically, why this approach would not be feasible? >>> >>> Maybe we don't really know enough to manipulate A, B, C yet? >>> >>> Or maybe it's too scary for primetime...nightmare bio-warfare apocalypse? >>> >>> Has this sort of thing been done, or does it have a name? >>> >>> Jacob >>> -- >>> >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >>> >>> Jacob Pearson Keller >>> >>> Assistant Professor >>> >>> Department of Pharmacology and Molecular Therapeutics >>> >>> Uniformed Services University >>> >>> 4301 Jones Bridge Road >>> >>> Bethesda MD 20814 >>> >>> jacob.kel...@usuhs.edu; jacobpkel...@gmail.com >>> >>> Cell: (301)592-7004 >>> >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> >>> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >>> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >>> >> >> ------------------------------ >> >> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >> > > > -- > patr...@douglas.co.uk Douglas Instruments Ltd. > Douglas House, East Garston, Hungerford, Berkshire, RG17 7HD, UK > Directors: Patrick Shaw Stewart, Peter Baldock, Stefan Kolek > > http://www.douglas.co.uk > Tel: 44 (0) 148-864-9090 US toll-free 1-877-225-2034 > Regd. England 2177994, VAT Reg. GB 480 7371 36 > > ------------------------------ > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > ######################################################################## To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/
