> gg wrote:
>> RoMunn wrote:
>> How can you be so wrong time and time again? History takes a broader view.
> Oh, and there's always positive history from even from failures:
Actually we could probably do a rough SWAG of an unbiased analysis:
(1.) Hopefully we'll agree that Bush will be remembered for 9/11 and
Iraq. Probably 80% Iraq, 10% 9/11, 10% everything else. So mostly
Iraq.
(2.) Many history books and movies have already been written about how
that war came about, how it was planned for, and how it was managed.
Cobra II, No end In Sight, et al. At this level, Bush loses huge.
When your own people (Paul Bremer, Jay Garner, et al say Bush blew it
now ... well that ain't gonna get better; case-in-point McClellen -
there's gonna be a ton of these books after the admin). So on war
justification and war planning, that'll be a big ding. That's already
written.
(3.) This leaves the Iraq War results. In this case there are 3 possiblities:
(3.1.) Little or no policy change - we stay in Iraq until the
country is able to govern itself peacefully or forever - whichever
comes first. In this case if that happens a la Japan, Germany, or
South Korea Bush looks good; if forever comes first, he looks bad.
(3.2.) Troop pull-down within 5 years. If this happens and the
country stabilizes into some type of reasonable government a la
Vietnam, Bush loses. If the country spirals out of control, Iran
takes over, etc, then it's neutral or positive for Bush.
(3.3.) United Nations/ International troop replacement. If this
is successful it's neutral of slightly negative. If this happens and
forever comes first, then it's negative.
So there it is - the broadest view that can be taken. There are a few
scenarios where Bush looks neutral or good - they're low probablility,
and ironically the highest probability of a successful outcome is with
3.3 - so it will be interesting to see.
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