The Saudis are not pumping more oil because they can't. That is the dirty
secret that no one wants to reveal. They are very close to max capacity. New
discoveries in Brazil, etc. are not going to come online fast enough to make
any difference in the short term.

The only way we can make a dent in the price of oil right now is to use
less- a lot less. Americans could totally change the market by driving less.
Will we? I doubt it, not in the short term. In the longer term, we'll buy
smaller, more fuel-efficient cars and make different choices about where we
live and work, but for now, we're stuck.

As for Iran, they have chosen a path that will inevitably lead to conflict
of one sort or another. That is the Iranian government's fault. The U.S. has
gone out of the way to push for diplomacy, but if diplomacy fails, there is
going to be a conflict. The Israelis are never going to stand by and watch
the Iranians develop nuclear weapons and long-range missiles to fire those
weapons at Israel. A nuclear attack from Iran is an existential threat to
Israel's existence. Maybe Ahmedinejad is using that fear to push up the
price of oil, but that is hardly Bush's fault.

On Sun, Jul 6, 2008 at 5:12 PM, Gruss  wrote:

>
> So demand has increased and Bush made a personal trip to the Saudis to
> call in his favors.  They publicly kicked him in the nuts and sent him
> away empty handed.  So much for the Bush policy of offsetting supply.
>



>
> As for speculators, again, you accurately point out that they work on
> supply and demand.  But again, you only choose to tell half the story.
>  When speculators think that world oil supply will be constrained by,
> say, a military strike on Iran, they drive up futures.
>
> Gee, now who's rattling sabers about an attack on Iran?  Hmmm ....
> Bush?  Ah, right, that's the guy.
>


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