That is still only true if Dranove's critique of Warren's study is correct and I am not at all sure that it is. If you take Dranove's analysis as gospel then yes, one every 2 minutes is significantly less than one every 30 seconds. However, from a political perspective, I don't think that the numbers are significantly different. You are still talking about over a quarter million bankruptcies and the situation has only gotten worse. In the context in which the statistic was used, I think it was valid. I also don't think that there is any reason to assume that the higher number was used in bad faith. As I pointed out, Warren rebutted Dranove's claims about her data and I thought she rebutted them quite well. The number cited in the speech was in good faith, I think, and not mischaracterized especially since it was only one number amongst a sea of similar statistics all of which were dead on.
Judah On Fri, Mar 6, 2009 at 9:55 AM, Scott Stroz <[email protected]> wrote: > > Sorry, but what he said appears to be inaccurate based in the information > you posted. You really can't deny that fact, nor defend what he said. One > bankruptcy every 2 minutes is 25% of one bankruptcy every 30 seconds...that > is quite a bit of misrepresentation there. > > On Fri, Mar 6, 2009 at 12:43 PM, Judah McAuley <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> There appears to be quite the back and forth on both sides of the >> issue though I'm surprised that there hasn't been follow up studies >> that I can find. >> >> Here is Dranove's Op-Ed in the Washington Times critiquing Warren's >> report that had the 54% of bankruptcies claim: >> http://washingtontimes.com/news/2007/jul/26/junk-social-science-index/ >> >> Here is Warren's rebuttal of the Op-Ed: >> >> http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2007/07/26/denying_the_truth_about_medica/ >> >> And another critique of Dranove's Op-Ed: >> http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2007/07/junk-opinions.html >> >> And even if 17% of bankruptcies in 2001 were caused by medical bills, >> there were 1,492,129 bankruptcy filings in 2001 according to >> http://www.uscourts.gov/bnkrpctystats/statistics.htm which would mean >> 253,662 filings due to medical bills. That would average out to 1 >> every 124 seconds based on 31,556,926 seconds in a year (2001 not >> being a leap year). >> >> I'd say that one bankruptcy filing every 2 minutes due to medical >> bills is absolutely horrible, wouldn't you? And considering that >> health care costs have continue to outpace wage growth substantially >> every year since 2001, I'd argue that the liklihood is that the >> statistics are much worse now. >> >> Worse case scenario, the "every 30 seconds" should be revised to >> "every 2 minutes". That is if Dranove's critiques are valid. >> Regardless, I don't think that it represents any important >> mischaracterization of the data. From a policy and political >> perspective, the conclusion is the same regardless of interpretation >> of the data. >> >> This is just more FUD. >> >> Judah >> >> On Thu, Mar 5, 2009 at 9:06 PM, Robert Munn <[email protected]> wrote: >> > >> > President Obamas kicking off his health care reform today in the worst >> > possible way: with a mischaracterization of data. >> > >> > The cost of health care now causes a bankruptcy in America every thirty >> > seconds," Obama said at the opening of his White House forum on health >> care >> > reform. The problem: That claim, based on a 2001 survey, is simply >> > unsupportable. >> > >> > The figure comes from a 2005 Harvard University >> > study<http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/reprint/hlthaff.w5.63v1.pdf >> >saying >> > that 54 percent of bankruptcies in 2001 were caused by health >> > expenses. We reviewed it internally and knocked it down at the time; an >> > academic reviewer did the same in 2006. Recalculating Harvards own data, >> he >> > came up with a far lower figure 17 percent. >> > >> > A more recent study <http://www.hschange.com/CONTENT/1017/>by another >> group, >> > approaching it another way, indicates that in 2007 about eight-tenths of >> one >> > percent of Americans lived in families that filed for bankruptcy as a >> result >> > of medical costs. That rings a little less loudly than one every 30 >> > seconds. >> > >> > ... >> > >> > more on the site >> > >> > http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2009/03/medical-bankrup. >> > >> > >> >> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;207172674;29440083;f Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:290807 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
