> Sam wrote: > > I love this line: > This deficit is expected to shrink substantially for 2011 and to > return to small surpluses for years 2012-2014 due to the improving > economy. >
Well, here's what the CBO says in this doc http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/SummaryforWeb.pdf : (1.) The Outlook "For 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if current laws remain unchanged, the federal budget will show a deficit of close to $1.5 trillion, or 9.8 percent of GDP (see Summary Table 1). The deficits in CBOs baseline projections drop markedly over the next few years as a share of output and average 3.1 percent of GDP from 2014 to 2021." (2.) The Assumption "Those projections, however, are based on the assumption that tax and spending policies unfold as specified in current law." (3.) The Gotchas "In particular, the baseline projections in this report are based on the following assumptions: (a.) Sharp reductions in Medicares payment rates for physicians services take effect as scheduled at the end of 2011; (b.) Extensions of unemployment compensation, [blah blah blah] all expire as scheduled at the end of 2011; (c.) Other provisions of the 2010 tax act [blah blah blah] expire as scheduled at the end of 2012; and (d.) Funding for discretionary spending increases with inflation rather than at the considerably faster pace seen over the dozen years leading up to the recent recession." (4.) The If-those-assumptions-don't-hold-true scenario "The aging of the population and rising costs for health care will push federal spending as a percentage of GDP well above that in recent decades. Specifically, spending on the governments major mandatory health care programs Medicare, Medicaid, SCHIP, and health insurance subsidies to be provided through insurance exchangesalong with Social Security will increase from roughly 10 percent of GDP in 2011 to about 16 percent over the next 25 years.3 If revenues stay close to their average share of GDP for the past 40 years, that rise in spending will lead to rapidly growing budget deficits and surging federal debt." (5.) The Imperative "To prevent debt from becoming unsupportable, policymakers will have to substantially restrain the growth of spending, raise revenues significantly above their historical share of GDP, or pursue some combination of those two approaches." Translation: we have to either cut social security and public health plan funding or raise taxes or ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:333866 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
