It might be argued that Fox would want to show Obama as winning in order to coax more reluctant Romney supporters to case their votes.
But on the flipside, Americans love to back a winner......so....maybe that goes out the window. On Mon, Sep 17, 2012 at 3:26 PM, Eric Roberts < ow...@threeravensconsulting.com> wrote: > > Even Fox says Obama a winning... > > ------------------------------------ > Three Ravens Consulting > Eric Roberts > Owner/Developer > ow...@threeravensconsulting.com > tel: 630-486-5255 > fax: 630-310-8531 > http://www.threeravensconsulting.com > ------------------------------------ > > -----Original Message----- > From: Judah McAuley [mailto:ju...@wiredotter.com] > Sent: Monday, September 17, 2012 2:58 PM > To: cf-community > Subject: Re: Timeline of events in Egypt and Libya > > > All polls that use a "likely voter" model calibrate their population sample > based on their model of how they think the actual voting population will > come out. Each polling outfit uses their own model and it can be just a > top-line number (we predict that 53% of the voters will be Democrats and > 47% > will be Republicans) or it can be more nuanced, breaking down the > population > by age, gender and race (for example). A lot of these models will use > sample > data, where they call people and find out how confident they are that > they'll be out voting on Nov. 6th and some will also use adjustments to > populations from previous elections. Will the voting populace look like > 2008 > (higher than historic norms for turn outs of minority and young voters) or > will it look more like 2004 or 2000? Are Republicans or Democrats more > fired > up to get out and vote? Will Independents say fuck it and stay home or do > they feel motivated to cast a vote one way or another? > > So, yes, it is true that the different polls have different samples for > likely voter screens. A lot of polling outfits think that having Obama on > the ticket and recent battles over student loans and such will keep > minority > and youth voting rates closer to 2008 levels than, say, 2004 levels. They > adjust their likely voter sample to reflect those guesses. Republicans, of > course, are betting on disillusionment because of the economy and the lack > of movement in Congress to keep a lot of people home who came out in 2008 > because they thought things could change. If they are right and those > people > stay home, it's true that the likely voter models would be over sampling > for > Obama. > > Undercutting the sampling argument, however, is the fact that national > polls > of registered voters (that don't resample for likeliness of > voting) also show a modest cut consistent lead for Obama of around 3 > points. > Polls being done to assess voter enthusiasm also point to Democrats being > as > enthusiastic or more enthusiastic than Republican voters, so the argument > that the LV samples are horribly wrong seem pretty weak to me. Possible, > but > unlikely. > > Cheers, > Judah > > On Mon, Sep 17, 2012 at 12:17 PM, Jerry Barnes <critic...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > > > "Most polls have Obama ahead, thought it's a slight margin. " > > > > Just came across this article about polling for this election: > > http://www.theblaze.com/stories/this-graph-shows-why-obama-is-ahead-in > > -the-polls/ > > > > It has a nice graph that shows the lead along with the over sampling. > > Here is the graph broken down: > > > > Poll,Lead,Over sampling > > Rasmussen,-1,-1 > > Tipp,2,5 > > CBS/NYT,3,6 > > Fox News,5,6 > > Ipsos/Reuters,7,9 > > ABC,1,10 > > Dem Corp,5,11 > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:355198 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
