FX,

I think Flash will continue to exist, but will not be present as it is
today.

CSS and JS are available for some time but you had problems making
cross-browser compatible. New CSS versions have more features and
(jQuery) has a small footprint and have many animations available.
Both works great in ANY browser.

For Video: Html5 (will) do a better job. I bet Youtube will push that
technology.
Animations: CSS and jQuery (JavaScript) do a better job. It's present
in any big website.
Those are better technologies. It just need time to be more
implemented. Internet Explorer 6 still has a 15% market share but it's
dying. Flash will continue to be around for many more years but more
and more web developers/designers will leave it behind.

About Ads: You'll be impressed how many people are using Ad blocking
applications. Try Adblock Plus (for Firefox) or GlimmerBlocker (Mac
only/ any browser). Personally I can't browse the web without it.
Pages load faster (don't have do download ad image/flash) , keep the
cpu cool and pages look more cleaner (without intrusive flashy
banners).
Some people might say Ad-blocking is wrong because websites receive
money from advertisers. Well, that's true, but I never click on those
ads anyway, so the are wasting bandwidth with me.

I believe Flash will be present for web games until a new technology
comes out. Check http://www.youtube.com/html5 (Use Safari or Firefox
to see it, no flash needed).

Laptops and portable devices are getting more present in our lives.
Battery life is important, specially in cellphones. Why do you think
iPhone don't have Flash? Because people will complain the battery
don't last half of what's been advertised.

People are complaining for years about cpu use in Flash and Adobe
didn't made ANY progress.They are not evil, they just don't have a
clue of what to do. Adobe only cares about adding new "features" and
their applications get more and more bloated.

Well... after some reflection I must say you're completely
right ;Adobe IS EVIL!
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