Ah, the evert present 'why.' You will be/are a great
networker.
Why is subject to debate, but likely has little to due
with administration. Yes, Clinton helped by not
screwing things up, but I can't blame GW. I don't like
his policies, or lack thereof, and am enraged at the
'energy crisis' and the environmental backstabbing...
:(
I think if one looks at the DoJ ruling on MSFT - that
really hit hard. We tried to recover and kept trying.
I was in Italy during the first downturn and was
stunned when I got back. Today I look around in
amazement as people bet on how low their stock will
go.
I personally thought that the baby boomers would keep
pumping money into the market as they feared for
retirement. The average boomer has $56K saved as of
two years ago. This didn't happen.
For us, the issue is 1) did the Internet get over
hyped, 2) what does it matter, 3) what will be the
replacement, and 4) will it impact society?
I think, for what its worth, 1) yes. 2) it doesn't,
markets are artificial anyways. 3) More time with
family and a return to a less hectic lifestyle ;) and
4) see 3.
This slowdown is different from others, and, as Japan
illustrates, this might be a VERY long one. Japan
lowered rates to zero and they are still in trouble.
Before I get blasted with the differences between
Japan and the US (I've got a minor in Poli Sci and was
working on an MBA), note that there are parallels. The
US has way too much consumer debt, in addition to
federal debt, and a buy now, pay never mindset. The
economic principal was $1.02 (.02 added to each dollar
of product - today its likely $1.06 or $1.07) Until
this is controlled we will always have a problem as
the Fed cannot lower rates in the face of loan
defaults. At the same time, no one wants to stop
spending or raise wages which would be deflationary or
inflationary. Lastly, there is always an angle, and
big business and big money are in control of
everything. The tax cut is a blip...
For jobs, right now we are, IMHO, just starting to get
to 'quality.' If you're good, and most on this board
are as evidenced by the time they take to participate,
then you should do fine. If you doubt your talent or
are faking, you'd better watch out as Santa is coming!
Karl's observation regarding global is only too true,
but I think is a bigger sense than he presents. For
example, I know a lot of companies that said 'CHINA.'
With 1.3 BILLION people is seems like a great market
for telecommunications, etc. But, the per capita
income is something like $13 a YEAR, and almost 1
billion have never seen a phone. Why should they
embrace American values and spend up to 20% of their
income on a device that they haven't needed in
milinium? And, can anyone make money (US perspective)
in this model. As such, the expectations were warped,
and the markets balked. I fell for it too - I dumped a
number of stocks near their highs, but kept thinking a
few were just down for a while. I got out in December
as part of a tax plan and haven't looked back.
Cause in economics, according to an old professor with
IMF, is political. Political is economic. Boy, if that
doesn't get us to a CID question... ;)
--- Moe Tavakoli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> If you look into the history of economic slowdown,
> you'll see that we should have seen this coming much
> before the administration change. And actually it
> started before the change was coming...
>
> This slowdown however is much different than others.
>
> The last two to three years are of a different
> bread.
> There was Billions of dollars pupmed into the market
> in potentially high growth areas and items such as
> the
> Nasdaq were over inflated because of the artificial
> expectation that was to come from the Internet.
> Salaries soared and so did sales of high ticket
> items.
> The Bay Area shows this much more dramatically than
> any other area. Everyone was changing jobs and
> taking
> a job that was one step ahead of their
> qualifications... and the salaries followed suit,
> home
> prices soared and so did the sale of big ticket
> items.
> On the cover of the local paper here there was an
> article of a local MBZ retailer who stated that he
> is
> writing 30 deposit return checks weekly.
>
> There was a dramatic up in the market and a dramatic
> decline. At this time we are heading back into
> reality and probably a bit into a recessionary
> period,
> were interest rates (unless they get to the 3% mark)
> will not have an effect. The Internet is a flop,
> taht
> is compared to what asperations we all had for it
> 1-2
> years a go. With the Internet goes the market.
>
> People like Cisco and Sun sit on TV and cliam that
> the
> .Gone boom is not the reason for their slowdown...
> PLEASE! Not less than a year ago were the dot
> gonners
> buying Cisco and SUN equipment by the truck load
> (and
> some of us were out there over sellign them like
> crazy) they are gone now and so are 70% of the folks
> who bough the 6500's and 7200's which Cisco shoved
> down all their throats.
>
> on teh CCXX issue. All these companies needed to
> hire
> folks to man their systems. They had more money
> than
> time so they paid them a huge mark up. This
> effetced
> other areas of the country (look at the population
> boom in all the major technology towns.) So with
> the
> decline is sales and role outs go the people who
> worked on the systems. CCNA will be back doing
> junior
> work and not pretending to know high level stuff.
> People who can sell them selves and have skills will
> command the 100-200k range (CCIE helps.) Always
> remember that an equaly qualified person with a CCIE
> always wins out.
>
> I also like to note that there are no *paper* CCIEs.
>
>
> moe.
>
> --- hal9001 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > Robert has any one actually fathomed WHY this has
> > suddenly happened. I'm
> > not making any form of a political point here but
> it
> > seems (just as a mark
> > of time) to have happened at the ending of one
> > administration and the
> > take-up of another.
> >
> > Do people and the markets feel the "gravy train"
> has
> > derailed what is the
> > sentiment in the USA? Why the sudden halt? Is
> > Japan also a factor? I
> > think it affects us all world-wide now so is
> > relevant in a general sense.
> >
> > Karl
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Robert Padjen" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > To: "Madl, Michael (CAP, AFS, Contractor)"
> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;
> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 5:07 PM
> > Subject: Re: CCxx Market
> >
> >
> > > The overall marketplace is reporting that
> spending
> > is
> > > not specifically slowing, but rather, that it
> > stopped
> > > dead. Hiring managers are taking more time to
> > recruit
> > > canidates, but they are still hiring. My
> contacts
> > are
> > > still looking for certifications, but, because
> of
> > the
> > > maturation process of 2000 they are looking
> beyond
> > > this single factor. Business skills, writing
> > > experience, and real-world knowledge are all
> much
> > > higher on the list. None of my folks will
> forward
> > a
> > > 'paper' CCXX.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- "Madl, Michael (CAP, AFS, Contractor)"
> > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > > Seeing as the economy is in a slow tail spin
> and
> > > > cisco is cutting back it's CCIE requirements
> for
> > > > channel partners, does anyone have any
> comments
> > on
> > > > how difficult it is in the
> > > > current climate and projected near future to
> > find a
> > > > job on the WAN side??
> > > >
> > > > I just passed my CCNA a month ago, about to
> > write
> > > > BSCN and half way through switching. I've got
> 4
> > > > years exp. as NT admin within a GE company.
> > > >
> > > > Any input/opinions welcome.
> > > >
> > > > Mike
> > > > CCNA, MCSE, ASE
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > _________________________________
> > > > FAQ, list archives, and subscription info:
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> > to
> > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > >
> > >
> > > =====
> > > Robert Padjen
> > >
> > >
> __________________________________________________
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> great
> > prices.
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> > >
> > > _________________________________
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>
> =====
> _____________________________________________
> Moe Tavakoli
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Yahoo! Auctions - Buy the things you want at great
> prices.
> http://auctions.yahoo.com/
>
> _________________________________
> FAQ, list archives, and subscription info:
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>
=== message truncated ===
=====
Robert Padjen
__________________________________________________
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