I respect Priscilla a lot, but I respectfully
disagree. I love Cisco the company. Its one of the
best run and tightest ships in the business. They will
be a winner for a long time to come.
However, they have a P/E of 52, and expectations of
lower earnings. P/E is typically 30 for a non-growth
company, so 45 or so would be a good mark for Cisco.
Since P/E will go up on bad numbers, which are already
anticipated and will occur, a further short term drop
of 4-7 points is not unreasonable. A stock buyback
could temporarly off-set this.
In addition, there is a boatload of money market money
in Cisco. Fund managers should be heeding a wake-up
call to diversify their funds. This will impact Cisco
further. Juniper and competition will also hurt, short
term.
Since capital is your tool, and Cisco is cash rich
(meaning your $100,000 investment today will not
change things for them directly), keep the cash, use
bonds, CDs and other investments to make some money,
keep cash for a longer-term downturn, and watch the
market like a hawk so that you are ready to go in with
a 'non dead-cat bounce' uptick. Don't try to 'time'
the market, but don't try to set the watch ahead
twenty minutes either. ;)
(I know this is O/T, but one cannot help but consider
these issues in light of the economy and
certifications (which are a risk/reward model
themselves - I spend $5000 to get certified, when do I
break even...)
And remember, we're still in a neutral or growing
economy with low unemployment. Most of us, me
included, haven't been through 'bad times.' My family
was very poor when I was young, so I've got a bit of
depression mentality, but I've still only seen the
'crash; of '87 as a high schooler.
--- Phil Barker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> So it must be time to get them cisco shares then ?
> They look like a snip at $20 !!!
>
> Phil.
>
> > I predict a turnaround by this time next year. The
>
> > computer industry
> > has
> > always been cyclical. We'll come around again.
> --- Priscilla Oppenheimer <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> > At 08:13 PM 3/14/01, hal9001 wrote:
> > >Robert has any one actually fathomed WHY this has
> > suddenly happened.
> >
> > The bubble burst. It was bound to happen. The
> > dot-com craze was cotton candy.
> >
> > > I'm
> > >not making any form of a political point here but
> > it seems (just as a mark
> > >of time) to have happened at the ending of one
> > administration and the
> > >take-up of another.
> >
> > George W. has unlucky timing. It would have
> happened
> > no matter who was elected.
> >
> > >Do people and the markets feel the "gravy train"
> > has derailed what is the
> > >sentiment in the USA? Why the sudden halt? Is
> > Japan also a factor? I
> > >think it affects us all world-wide now so is
> > relevant in a general sense.
> >
> > The computer industry is still solid. Companies
> with
> > sensible business
> > plans that recognize the need to make a profit
> will
> > do fine.
> >
> > I predict a turnaround by this time next year. The
> > computer industry has
> > always been cyclical. We'll come around again. Big
> > spending will start
> > occurring again when we realize that are current
> > computers and networks are
> > still too slow and too dumb. Most of us can
> envision
> > all sorts of advanced
> > applications that are still not technologically
> > feasible, but they will be
> > feasible as progress is made. And they will eat
> CPU
> > cycles, memory, and
> > bandwidth causing more spending to happen.
> >
> > That's my $0.02. I hope we don't waste too much
> > bandwidth on this O/T
> > discussion. (Easy for me to say after I had my
> say!
> > &;-)
> >
> > Priscilla
> >
> >
> > >Karl
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: "Robert Padjen" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > >To: "Madl, Michael (CAP, AFS, Contractor)"
> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;
> > ><[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > >Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 5:07 PM
> > >Subject: Re: CCxx Market
> > >
> > >
> > > > The overall marketplace is reporting that
> > spending is
> > > > not specifically slowing, but rather, that it
> > stopped
> > > > dead. Hiring managers are taking more time to
> > recruit
> > > > canidates, but they are still hiring. My
> > contacts are
> > > > still looking for certifications, but, because
> > of the
> > > > maturation process of 2000 they are looking
> > beyond
> > > > this single factor. Business skills, writing
> > > > experience, and real-world knowledge are all
> > much
> > > > higher on the list. None of my folks will
> > forward a
> > > > 'paper' CCXX.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- "Madl, Michael (CAP, AFS, Contractor)"
> > > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > > > Seeing as the economy is in a slow tail spin
> > and
> > > > > cisco is cutting back it's CCIE requirements
> > for
> > > > > channel partners, does anyone have any
> > comments on
> > > > > how difficult it is in the
> > > > > current climate and projected near future to
> > find a
> > > > > job on the WAN side??
> > > > >
> > > > > I just passed my CCNA a month ago, about to
> > write
> > > > > BSCN and half way through switching. I've
> got
> > 4
> > > > > years exp. as NT admin within a GE company.
> > > > >
> > > > > Any input/opinions welcome.
> > > > >
> > > > > Mike
> > > > > CCNA, MCSE, ASE
> >
> >
> > ________________________
> >
> > Priscilla Oppenheimer
> > http://www.priscilla.com
> >
> > _________________________________
> > FAQ, list archives, and subscription info:
> > http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html
> > Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>
>
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