I don't think so, there really isn't a market for lambda routers at the
moment (I think Lucent just sold its first Lambda Router, after over a year
since the announcement).
The money is still in selling T1's & T3's, thus the demand is for edge
products that groom T1/T3 into optical trunks. There just isn't much demand
for products that switch wavelengths as there are minimal applications for
the services those devices provide. Wavelength switches may take off in a
few years, but the short term outlook isn't pretty. IMHO, Cisco decided to
cut its losses on Monterey and keep its options open for the future, rather
than continuing to sink money into a struggling technology.
Irwin
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Cohen [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Wednesday, May 30, 2001 9:54 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: RE: Does MPLS really live up to all its hype? [7:6151]
Actually, Cisco bought the ONS 15900 along with Monterey Networks for 500
million in August of 1999. That's what makes this a particularly
interesting move by Cisco since this was an aquisition which places them in
the market of one of the next big core technologies exactly following the
corporate culture NRF mentioned. Core network technologies has always been
their bread and butter and to see them dump the Monterey project after
investing and aquiring the company just because of the economic slow down is
questionable in my mind. Other companies have had it rough too. I've heard
Lucent almost went bankrupt but as NRF pointed out they are still heavily
investing in Lambda switching. It has been confirmed by the VP of Optical
Networking that Cisco doesn't plan on reengaging the lambda switching market
anytime soon. With a compound annual growth rate of 137% and an estimated
5.7 billion spent in optical switches by 2005 the question in my mind
is...Is this an irresponsible move by a leader in the networking industry?
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of
NRF
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2001 10:08 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Does MPLS really live up to all its hype? [7:6151]
""KY"" wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
> Mike,
>
> I agree with you. cisco definitely made a fatal mistake here and leave a
> huge room for at least one company, Juniper.
Well, I'm sure that everybody knows Cisco's corporate strategy has always
been to try to figure out what's going to be hot, and then just acquire
somebody. Sometimes it works (Grand Junction still being the best example),
sometimes it doesn't. But I've never seen Cisco as much of a
research-oriented company, at least not in the lines of Lucent, with its
world-class Bell Labs, or Nortel. Rather, it is a sales/marketing driven
company that also likes to play the acquisition card.
So I'm sure that if and when lambda switching really gets big, Cisco will
come calling, wallet in hand. The suits in Cisco must be thinking something
like: "This acquisition strategy has worked pretty well so far, so why not
keep doing it?"
Of course, this strategy is not so easy to do when your stock price has
crashed. Cisco better figure out how to get its market cap back up.
Note - for would-be flamers - I am not commenting on whether Cisco's dumping
of the 15900 was a smart or stupid thing. What I am saying is that doing so
was perfectly in line with its corporate culture. And I'm sure we would
all agree that it is extremely difficult for big companies to change their
culture.
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