I would have to disagree with you on some of your points. More often
than not predictions turn out to be wrong. Take Wall street for a bad
example. There's no doubt in my mind that major changes will occur in the
IT industry. Of the dozens of new technologies that become available each
year, some of them will most certainly mature. Most of them will fail, and
if you could tell me exactly which ones would succeed then there's no point
in working at all. Just invest in the successful ones, rake in the money,
and do IT work for free because you love it.
I agree with you on some points though. In the US, I doubt there's
going to be a buildout boom anytime soon, and R&S skills may not be as
profitable now as they were just a few years ago. But by no means do I
think that the skills are not valuable. For the next couple of years I
believe that in order to prosper you'll need to develop other skills (as
with every industry, but especially with IT) . The skillset that Doctors
and Lawyers possessed 20 years ago is all but obsolete now; Which is why
they are required to continue their education with continuing education
courses.
Remember that most of the world is still underdeveloped. Take China for
instance. if just 1% china went out and bought a computer and hoped to
connect to the internet, those R&S skills would be heavily in demand,
throw in all the developing former Iron Curtain nations, and the continents
of Africa and much of South America, and you have plenty of R&S job
openings. I have full faith in the power of capitalism, I'm certain that
eventually the undeveloped countries will develop, and they are going to
need qualified, experienced people to help them out.
Security is hot this year, and next year it could be something else.
Working in the IT industry means that you will need to rebuild you entire
skillset every few years. I believe that Cisco realizes that, which is why
recertification is so important. It won't surprise me at all if the CCIE
tracks appear to converge a bit more in the next 3 to 6 years. Gone are the
days when you started your career and retired with the same skillsets, and I
wouldn't want it any other way.
Jarett
""nrf"" wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
> ""Marc Thach Xuan Ky"" wrote in message
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
> > A few points:
> > When I was fresh in the IT industry (over 20 years ago) the old-timers
> > who had been working maybe four years already would tell me that there
> > was no future in programming, after all they said, who uses a chauffeur
> > now that cars are so easy to drive?
> > Cars need very little maintenance now, there are still plenty of
> > mechanics because there are more cars.
> > Phone companies still employ a lot of telephone engineers, large
> > corporates often have on-site telephone staff. There are more phone
> > companies now. Voice is a commodity.
> > Here in London during the 80's property boom, electricians and plumbers
> > on the large contracts were being paid a lot more than any network
> > engineer I heard of at the time.
>
> I would just add that many times (actually, more often than not,
predictions
> actually turn out to be correct). For example, decades ago, people
> predicted a decline in the number of jobs in farming. And indeed the
number
> of jobs in farming declined substantially. People also predicted a huge
> decline in the number of jobs in old-school manufacturing - steel,
mining,
> etc. And indeed that came to pass. And even for those jobs that didn't
> decline, there was significant change in what they did. Mechanics can't
> just know how to fix carburetors, now they have to understand
> fuel-injection.
>
> IT has always been an industry of change. What was hot at one point of
time
> may not be hot at another. IBM mainframe skill was in big demand back in
> the 70's, and it has been on a slow decline ever since. COBOL was also
huge
> back then, and enjoyed a brief resurgence due to y2k, but is now
declining.
> I believe R/S skill will fade into the background because quite simply not
> as many organizations are building out new networks anymore, nor do they
> really need to. The networks are built with most likely only incremental
> buildouts in the near-future, and so now the question is what are you
going
> to do with the network. That is what is going to get you jobs. For those
> of you who are still waiting for another huge network buildout boom, well,
> sorry to tell you, but that train has left the station.
>
>
>
> > rgds
> > Marc
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