Hi Dave,

You are doing it.    No matter what evidence is presented,  people will
find a way to say it doesn't exist.    As I mentioned earlier, the
argument was that didn't apply to chess except for the first 4 or 5 ply
- then when that didn't happen they expanded it to the first 6 or 7 and
to this very day people are denying it - although they are looking more
and more foolish in the process.

We have already seen that this holds in GO, I did a massive study of it
month ago on 9x9 boards and showed everyone this beautiful plot with
straight lines showing the ELO per TIME curve which was essentially flat.  

I also remember the response.   "ok,  it applies to a small boards but
19x19 is a completely different game that bears no resemblance."     

So I must give up on this.   I know if I do the plot again someone will
say,   "it only applies to depths we can currently test."   "Surely it
will flatten out next year when the new processors come."

I cannot answer to those arguments when no evidence is presented to back
it up other than superstition of disbelief or my favorite, "the
testimony of experts in the field."      I can only say that every bit
of evidence we have backs up what I am saying.   

- Don


Dave Dyer wrote:
> I agree with your exposition of search as it applies to chess, but
> I think there is a qualitative difference in Go.
>
> In chess, evaluators can see clear progress, in the form of material 
> balance and statically determined positional factors, so each additional 
> ply gives you more opportunity to see progress.
>
> Until Go evaluators give similarly strong and reliable signals, search
> will be a very much weaker tool.
>
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>
>   
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