Okay, I didn't express myself very well the first time I tried to say this.   
But as I see it,  we're still basing the design of crypto algorithms on 
considerations that had the importance we're treating them as having about 
twelve years ago. 

To make an analogy, it's like making tires when you need to have a ten thousand 
mile warranty.  When rubber is terribly expensive and the cars are fairly slow, 
 you make a tire that probably won't be good for twelve thousand miles. But 
it's now years later.  Rubber has gotten cheap and the cars are moving a lot 
faster and the cost of repairing or replacing crashed vehicles is now 
dominating the cost of rubber. Even if tire failure accounts for only a small 
fraction of that cost,  why shouldn't we be a lot more conservative in the 
design of our tires? A little more rubber is cheap and it would be nice to know 
that the tires will be okay even if the road turns out to be gravel. 

This is where I see crypto designers.  Compute power is cheaper than it's ever 
been but we're still treating it as though its importance hasn't changed. More 
is riding on the cost of failures and we've seen how failures tend to happen.  
Most of the attacks we've seen wouldn't have worked on the same ciphers if the 
ciphers had been implemented in a more conservative way.   A few more rounds of 
a block cipher or a wider hidden state for a PRNG, or longer RSA keys,  even 
though we didn't know at the time what we were protecting from, would have kept 
most of these things safe for years after the attacks or improved factoring 
methods were discovered.   

Engineering is about achieving the desired results using a minimal amount of 
resources.  When compute power was precious that meant minimizing compute 
power. But the cost now is mostly in redeploying and upgrading extant 
infrastructure.  And in a lot of cases we're having to do that because the 
crypto is now seen to be too weak.  When we try to minimize our use of 
resources,  we need to value them accurately. 

To me that means making systems that won't need to be replaced as often.  And 
just committing more of the increasingly cheap resource of compute power would 
have achieved that given most of the breaks we've seen in the past few years. 

To return to our road safety metaphor,  we're now asking ourselves if we're 
still confident in that ten thousand mile warranty now that we've discovered 
that the company that puts up road signs has also been contaminating our rubber 
formula, sneakily cutting brake lines,  and scattering nails on the road. Damn, 
it's enough to make you wish you'd overdesigned, isn't it?

-------- Original message --------
From: John Kelsey <crypto....@gmail.com> 
Date: 09/30/2013  17:24  (GMT-08:00) 
To: "cryptography@metzdowd.com List" <cryptography@metzdowd.com> 
Subject: [Cryptography] Sha3 
 
If you want to understand what's going on wrt SHA3, you might want to look at 
the nist website, where we have all the slide presentations we have been giving 
over the last six months detailing our plans.  There is a lively discussion 
going on at the hash forum on the topic.  

This doesn't make as good a story as the new sha3 being some hell spawn cooked 
up in a basement at Fort Meade, but it does have the advantage that it has some 
connection to reality.

You might also want to look at what the Keccak designers said about what the 
capacities should be, to us (they put their slides up) and later to various 
crypto conferences.  

Or not.  

--John
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