>From NewsMax.CoM NewsMax Home · Archives · Inside Cover · TalkMax · Liners · Comment Max · News Links · Contact Us! Russia and China: A Pattern of Belligerence – Part 1 J.R. NyquistMarch 23, 1999 War Preparations Continue in Russia All around the globe, a pattern of belligerence toward the United States and her allies is emerging: from the Korean peninsula down through the Spratly Islands near the Philippines, enveloping Taiwan, then reappearing in Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Balkans. The rhetoric from Beijing, Moscow, Belgrade, Pyongyang, and Baghdad suggests possible coordination. Forward military deployments by China, Iraq, Serbia, and Russia, together with sinister construction projects and major troop movements, have been noted in East Asia, the Pacific, and the Middle East. In the past month, numerous developments have taken place in Russia that suggest war preparations: RUSSIA CREATES UNIFIED COMMAND OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS In January, the Russian General Staff announced that all of the country’s nuclear forces -- Strategic Rocket Forces, submarine-based weaponry, and nukes on their strategic bombers -- would now be placed under one command. ANALYSIS: This development was widely reported in Russia and by the Associated Press. The AP story indicated bafflement that Russia, in the middle of economic problems, would be reorganizing its armed forces, especially the nuclear forces. But this development fits the thesis that Russia is, in fact, preparing for war. In war, the principle of "unity of command” is considered crucial. By moving to unify nuclear command, the Russian armed forces can now better coordinate a nuclear surprise attack involving all nuclear service branches, obviating the friction of interservice rivalry. In a strictly defensive situation, centralization of the nuclear forces is unnecessary, even counterproductive. Decentralization is better for defense. However, this is not true for attack. Coordinating an effective, disarming first strike requires a high degree of control and coordination, which a unified nuclear command facilitates. This move, coupled with the fact Russia has been moving its strategic warheads onto submarines in the past six months, should be viewed with alarm. TOP GENERALS RESIGN FROM STRATEGIC ROCKET FORCES In the second half of January, the commander of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces, Col.-Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, resigned his post together with his three chief deputies, allegedly throwing Russia’s nuclear forces into disarray. After taking this unprecedented action, Yakovlev stated that the reason for his resignation was a personality conflict with Gen. Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s early-warning service. ANALYSIS: According to Col. Stanislav Lunev, ranking defector from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff, Yakovlev’s retirement was planned some time ago. "They already have civilian jobs waiting for them,” Lunev said. "There will be no disruption of the rocket forces.” Lunev believes the resignations stem from the reorganization of Russia’s nuclear forces under a single chief, but he nonetheless admits that Yakovlev and his deputies are hard-liners and careerists. After closer analysis, it is difficult to argue that they would resign in protest over a measure they themselves long advocated, as they were supporters and proteges of Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, the man most responsible for the reorganization of the nuclear forces. There are serious inconsistencies here that must not be passed over. Why did Yakovlev and his deputies resign? Has a secret nuclear command center been established? A centralized nuclear command would have to create alternate command posts in several bunkers, with many capable general officers at the ready. Were these resignations made in protest over the reorganization of Russia’s nuclear forces, or were they part of the reorganization itself? RUSSIA’S NORTHERN FLEET PUT ON ALERT When President Clinton bombed Iraq in December, Moscow put its Northern Fleet on alert. This curious move, which makes no sense in terms of reacting to a Middle East crisis, and coming at a supposed time of reduced superpower tensions, has serious implications that ought to be explored. ANALYSIS: Prior to a surprise nuclear attack on the United States, it is believed the Russians would attempt to put most of their nuclear missile submarines to sea. Therefore, the question that must be asked is whether the Russians used the alert to deploy their missile submarine forces. Despite what some analysts might say, any large-scale deployment to sea is a red flag. The Northern Fleet contains the lion’s share of Russia’s naval strike capability, and any alerting of that fleet needs to be carefully scrutinized. In fact, any Russian fleet alert should be answered by a comparable U.S. fleet alert. It is alarming in and of itself that the United States did not respond in kind. RUSSIANS CONTINUE NUKE TESTING The Russians have abandoned the agreement to forgo underground nuclear tests. They have admitted to testing three tactical nuclear warheads in recent weeks. These are part of a new generation of tactical nuclear weapons that the Russian armed forces have developed. In addition, during the period of the agreed suspension of underground tests, there have been suspicious earthquakes in Russia with signatures characteristic of strategic nuclear tests. ANALYSIS: Nuclear readiness requires the occasional testing of nuclear warheads. New, more efficient weapons must be tested before they are deployed to the armed forces. The United States has not tested its nuclear stockpile in several years, while the Russians have been testing their weapons. The importance of tactical nuclear weapons to the Russians lies in the fact that these cannot be kept track of by arms control specialists. The START agreements require Russia to destroy the bulk of its strategic nuclear stockpiles, which cannot be hidden. But tactical nuclear weapons have a number of advantages over strategic ones. First and foremost, they are more efficient in terms of their use of nuclear fuel. Also, tactical nuclear weapons can be packed into ICBMs, bombers, fighter-bombers, or artillery units, making them the most versatile type of nuclear weapon. Last, but not least, tactical nuclear weapons can be delivered as a cluster, which is a more effective means for destroying large urban areas, and obviates the terms of the START treaties, which call for the elimination of multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). THE RUSSIANS LIE ABOUT THEIR READINESS The chief of the Russian General Staff, Anatoly Kvashin, a hardened professional known for his stony silence, now claims that Russia has halved its western military deployments, reducing its strike capability near Finland. On Jan. 11, Kvashin stated: "We have extremely low defense readiness.” ANALYSIS: These are curious words from an ordinarily obsessive, secretive, and paranoid functionary. Such a pronouncement is uncharacteristic and probably deceptive. Throughout history, when Russian forces have been weak or unready, no Russian general officer would dare to acknowledge the fact. Such acknowledgment, under normal conditions, would lead to immediate dismissal. Russian military doctrine pays close attention to the dictum of Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese strategist, who said: "All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are away. ... Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.” If Russia is really moving troops off its border with Europe, as well as troops away from its Chinese border, where are the troops being relocated? UNPRECEDENTED SLAUGHTER OF RUSSIAN FUR ANIMALS Russia and Belarus have large collective farms dedicated to the breeding of polar foxes and minks. Russia is the world’s largest fur consumer, annually buying 40 percent of the furs produced worldwide. But now, Russian officials claim that demand has stalled, and they are slaughtering their fox and mink herds because they cannot afford to feed them. Slaughter is normal at the onset of winter, of course, but this slaughter is of unprecedented numbers of animals. At the same time, Russia is importing fur from China, as well as coats, jackets, and boots. If Russian demand has stalled and the market for furs is flooded, why the imports? ANALYSIS: Wherever we see an inconsistency in Russia’s economy, we have to think twice. In World War II, Russian spies infiltrated all of the sheep ranches in Europe. Their mission: to watch and see if sheep were being sheared for 5 million sheepskin coats. Soviet military intelligence reasoned that if Hitler intended to invade Russia, he would need heavy winter clothing for his troops. The shearing of the sheep would be a dead giveaway. Unfortunately for Hitler, he did not make the 5 million coats. And though he caught Soviet military intelligence off guard, his troops in Russia suffered frostbite and amputations once winter began. In fact, one of the medals struck for German soldiers during 1941-42 was called "The Order of the Frozen Meat.” Logistical preparations are a necessary part of war. National leaders ignore such preparations at great peril. In this context, what are we to make of this huge increase in the production and importation of furs and uniform clothing in Russia? While this activity could indicate Russian economic miscalculation, one has to wonder why the fur herds were increased to such a size to begin with. Since these fur farms are state-controlled, an increase in production suggests an increase in projected consumption. But as civilian consumption has remained steady, the obvious conclusion is that somebody in Moscow was anticipating a huge increase in the military’s demand for winter clothing. With the aforesaid cover story of a collapsed market, Moscow might well mask a planned troop mobilization of very large dimensions. If Russia called up her reserves either before or after a nuclear exchange, she would need winter coats, boots, and headgear (even if the attack took place in warm weather). Russia’s soldiers may have to confront winter weather conditions in North America if Russian military doctrine is followed. This doctrine calls for an invasion of America. Always cognizant of history, the Russian General Staff is well aware of Hitler’s mistake in World War II and would never repeat that mistake in World War III. As Russia openly makes moves for war, its new partner, China, has been taking equally dramatic steps. Coming Wednesday: Part 2 -- Chinese Premier Calls For Nuclear War Preparations Russia and China: A Pattern of Belligerence – Part 2 J.R. NyquistMarch 23, 1999 China’s Clenched Fist As Russia openly makes moves for war, its new partner, China, has been taking equally dramatic steps. CHINESE PREMIER CALLS FOR NUCLEAR WAR PREPARATIONS On Jan. 8, as if to prepare his people for war, Chinese President Jiang Zemin laid out the mission of the People’s Liberation Army in a speech: "We must resolutely safeguard the unity of the motherland and the nation’s territorial integrity.” Unity, of course, is the war cry of the Communists against Taiwan. Jiang also warned that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army must prepare itself for nuclear war. Soon thereafter, China conducted military exercises in which Chinese nuclear forces practiced targeting American troops in the Far East. At the same time, the People’s Republic announced radical changes in military policy. The Chinese air force was placed on "offensive mode” as opposed to "defensive mode,” and China’s army doctrine was altered to one of global warfighting. China has also begun centralizing the distribution of supplies for all branches of the military in what the official media calls the biggest streamlining effort in 50 years. In this context, China’s new "strategic partnership” with the Russian Federation takes on sinister ramifications. China is also backing North Korea in its dispute with the U.S. alliance. ANALYSIS: China is making serious war preparations. This enhances China’s options against Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Japan. There is every reason to believe, from these moves, that China will support North Korea if war should break out in the Far East. In the context of a renewed war, Taiwan would almost certainly be subject to blockade, possibly sparking a naval action between China and the U.S. This is a dangerous situation that China seems ready to welcome. (Also, China now supports Saddam Hussein in the U.N.) CHINA SEIZES SPRATLY ISLANDS In the Far East, China has invaded the Spratly Islands, more than 800 miles from China yet 140 miles from the Philippines. Manila has expressed alarm that the People’s Liberation Army is erecting gun and anti-aircraft emplacements on Mischief Reef. The Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, Guan Dengming, insisted that China was merely constructing "shelters for fishermen.” But a leading Philippine official countered this, saying: "We strongly believe a fortress is being built.” Philippine Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado stated that concrete buildings in the Spratlys "are beginning to look more like military structures rather than the so-called fishermen’s refuge the Chinese claimed it to be.” Mercado further accused China of bullying the Philippines, referring to recent Chinese moves as "a creeping invasion.” ANALYSIS: China’s invasion of the Spratlys may not be aimed at the Philippines. The Spratlys lie across a key waterway that is essential to Taiwan. The concrete structures, aside from the anti-aircraft emplacements, may be useful to mine-laying operations. The Mischief Reef operation may be the first step toward an eventual blockade of Taiwan, which is heavily fortified and would probably repel a direct Chinese assault. Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, taking note of Beijing’s attempts to encircle his small island country, called on his citizens "to raise their vigilance against the military threat from China.” It’s important to note the Clinton administration has been silent over this audacious move by Beijing. In previous administrations, America would have moved with military force to prevent China’s expansionist plans. The failure of the United States to confront China in the Spratlys bodes ill for Taiwan. Russia and Chinese war preparations are not isolated and involve communist client states around the world. SADDAM HAS RENEWED HIS WAR MACHINE The Iraqi government has stepped up military activity in southern Iraq. The military governor of the Basra region, a Russian-trained Iraqi general, has confirmed the arrival of new air-defense weapons, fully acknowledging that his orders are to shoot down American planes. On Jan. 26, American warplanes pounded Iraqi artillery and anti-aircraft positions. Throughout the second half of January, Iraq deployed troops toward the Kuwait border. In response, Kuwait has mobilized its army, claiming that Saddam is about to do something "dramatic.” The Iraqi dictator, aside from asserting his territorial ambitions against Kuwait, denounced Saudi and Egyptian leaders as "lackeys and stooges of the U.S.” ANALYSIS: Iraq is an old Soviet client state. The country’s secret police was trained by Yuri Andropov’s KGB. Its officer corps was trained by the Russian army. Nearly all of Iraq’s military equipment is Russian. Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, a fluent Arabic speaker and longtime supporter of Saddam Hussein, has intensified Moscow’s diplomatic and military support for Saddam. As Kosovo renews its civil war, as China tightens its noose around Taiwan, as North Korea girds for war, Saddam’s threat to Kuwait keeps U.S. forces diverted and occupied. Saddam’s provocations may be coordinated through Moscow with the provocations by China, North Korea, and Serbia. NORTH KOREA’S EXTREME BEHAVIOR The North Koreans, close allies of Moscow and Beijing, have recently declared that "the United States will [soon] be reduced to ashes and will no longer exist.” North Korean headlines from the first week of 1999 proclaimed that "U.S. Imperialist Aggressors Will Be Unable to Avoid Annihilating Strikes.” Another North Korean source stated that the Americans would be wiped "from this planet for good.” In the New Year’s message of the North Korean government, the communists called on their citizens to "love rifles, earnestly learn military affairs, and turn the whole country into an impregnable fortress.” Kim Myong, an influential North Korean writer and editor who lives in Tokyo, was quoted as saying: "Maybe there will be a new war. Maybe everyone in Tokyo will die.” Kongdon On, a North Korean specialist at the Institute for Defense Analysis in Washington, says: "There is...strong frustration among a lot of people that North Korea is acting very strangely.” Han Park, a political scientist specializing in North Korea at the University of Georgia, also stated: "The situation will be very, very dangerous in the next few months.” South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, fearing the communist threat, warned his people to be ready for a surprise attack from the North. ANALYSIS: North Korea has broken its agreement to desist from developing nuclear weapons. It is now suspected that North Korea has nuclear capability, and also has the missiles to deliver nuclear weapons. Able to threaten Tokyo as well as other Japanese cities with nuclear destruction, North Korea is now emboldened and may renew its struggle to conquer the South. With Chinese and perhaps Russian support, Pyongyang has mobilized its armed forces and is now ready to strike. Defectors from the North Korean military have stated that Pyongyang has a plan to conquer South Korea in seven days. Such a plan, if it exists, probably emphasizes the use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons of mass destruction, since the conventional firepower of the North Korean army (as it now stands) could not readily defeat the South in such a short time. CIVIL WAR LOOMS IN KOSOVO Violence has again erupted between Albanian separatists and Serbian forces in Kosovo, and, despite NATO warnings, the violence shows every sign of continuing. Russia has openly supported the Serbs, giving out subtle warnings about a "widened war in Europe.” ANALYSIS: More American troops and air units, including a carrier group, are pinned down. This crisis further stretches American military resources, and with no end in sight. American ground forces are said to trace their lines of supply through Hungary, a former Russian satellite with a dubious political leadership. This is an awkward position to be in, and with Russia’s new belligerent stance we are in no position to challenge the Serbian communists. Taking the above items as a whole, a pattern of war preparations and belligerence is clear. Nations of the old communist bloc are making provocative moves across the board. With America’s armed forces at an all-time postwar low in readiness and strength, it is doubtful we can meet the challenges that lie ahead. North Korea and China seem to sense our weakness. And add to this that all these provocative moves have come during the impeachment trial of President Clinton. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Read Part 1 Russia and China: A Pattern of Belligerence War Preparations Continue in Russia. ~~~~~~~~~~~~ A<>E<>R The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Every great advance in natural knowledge has involved the absolute rejection of authority. -Thomas Huxley + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only.
