-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- >From Wash (DC) Post Via MSNBC {{<<Begin>}} GOP race stirs the House, too Bush-McCain fight could affect which party controls it By Juliet Eilperin WASHINGTON POST Feb. 29 — George W. Bush’s struggle to nail down the GOP presidential nomination has shaken up the contest to control the House of Representatives, threatening to undermine a Republican strategy based partly on the notion that candidates would get a boost from Bush leading the ticket. ‘The reason people are nervous is because this was not in the script.’ — REP. THOMAS M. DAVIS III House Republican Campaign Committee SOME GOP lawmakers are nervous that the combination of Bush’s recent moves to the right and the divisiveness of a prolonged primary campaign against Arizona Sen. John McCain could hurt their efforts to keep control of the House. GOP leaders acknowledge that even if Bush prevails in the nomination fight, they can no longer count on his coattails lifting marginal candidates around the country. “The reason people are nervous is because this was not in the script,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (Va.), chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee. “There was a script written for the congressional year. John McCain was not in the script. George Bush was in the script.” Michael Scanlon, a former aide to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) who now works as a Republican consultant, said while he expects Bush to win the presidency and the GOP to retain the House, “Nobody’s going to run on somebody else’s coattails. People are just realizing that now, eight months out from the election. That’s the problem.” For the GOP, the stakes are immense: A loss of just six seats would give control of the House to the Democrats, who are waging a spirited battle to regain the majority. For months, House GOP leaders have told their colleagues and allies that Bush would be an ideal standard-bearer for the 2000 elections, shaping the party’s agenda and promoting a more moderate Republican image. House Republicans have kept in regular communication with Bush’s team of advisers in Austin, occasionally vetting policy ideas and factoring proposals such as Bush’s tax cut plan into their upcoming budget resolution. Most House Republicans have endorsed Bush and consistently highlighted the importance of Bush’s stature to their efforts. Some have even suggested that they did not have to push an aggressive legislative agenda because the fight for the presidency will dominate the campaign. The emergence of McCain as a serious competitor for the nomination has scrambled those calculations, offering both risks and opportunities for his counterparts in the lower chamber, according to many lawmakers. Because McCain has staked out much different positions on key issues such as taxes and campaign finance, some GOP leaders acknowledge that they would have to adjust their agenda if he were the nominee. “The last thing you want to do with a nominee is get in his face,” Davis said. “Self-preservation would indicate you would try to reach an accommodation.” McCain’s few backers in the House suggest that Republicans should welcome the prospect of an avowed reformer with a compelling personal biography at the top of the ticket. “It is not unfair to say George W. Bush looks a whole lot like Bob Dole and George Senior, a traditional Republican candidate that does not pull votes to us,” said Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.), one of nine House members to endorse the Arizona senator. “John McCain, by dint of his background, experience and personal history, is a stronger and more appealing candidate to a broad spectrum of the electorate.” McCain has outperformed Bush in at least one key congressional district so far. McCain beat Bush by seven points overall in Michigan’s primary this week but by a 10-point margin in the district now represented by Rep. Deborah Ann Stabenow (D). Stabenow is now running for the Senate, and her district around Lansing ranks as one of the GOP’s top targets this fall. House strategists will also be looking carefully at how McCain performs next week in California, where several of the most competitive congressional races will take place. Despite McCain’s emergence, most House Republicans interviewed for this article said they still believed the Texas governor would win his party’s nomination, and said he would be effective in broadening the party’s appeal—to minorities, independents and Democrats. “That’s one of the reasons I embraced him. I felt he was somebody who had a message that resonated with a lot of voters,” said Rep. Ray LaHood (R- Ill.). “A lot of people aren’t focused on the presidential race or the congressional races.” When word spread of Bush’s South Carolina win at a House GOP retreat in Palm Springs over the President’s Day weekend, according to former representative Bob Walker (R-Pa.), “There was much elation.” “There’s no doubt the bulk of members want to run with George Bush at the top of the ticket rather than with John McCain,” said Walker, now a Washington lobbyist with close ties to the leadership. “There’s a concern that all of the votes McCain has been getting in the primary are not going to translate into Republican votes in the fall. . . . Implying that anybody who disagrees with you is corrupt, that’s a little hard for people on the Hill to swallow.” But some lawmakers who initially backed Bush—such as Rep. Peter T. King (R-N.Y.) who switched to McCain because of Bush’s recent appearance at conservative Bob Jones University—said the Texas governor had alienated the moderate voters he promised to win over in the general election. “If anything, he’s spinning himself into a tighter and tighter circle, unable to go beyond that to go beyond the Republican base,” King said. “Didn’t he realize there’s life after South Carolina? He won the battle, but lost the war.” House Democrats have quickly seized on this notion. Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy (R.I.), who heads their campaign arm, said the primary fight had dimmed the “compassionate conservative” image Bush might have been able to transfer to the House GOP. “The fact that he’s now no different from them, but one of them, makes it easier for us to attack them for their own record,” Kennedy said. “They wanted to be riding George Bush’s coattails. We’re going to be able to hang them around George Bush’s neck.” Some leaders, like DeLay, have long emphasized the need for House Republicans to raise enough money and put a grass-roots network in place so they would not have to rely on a presidential candidate. Now, lawmakers say, they need to redouble those efforts in the wake of the more uncertain political climate, and even Bush supporters are preparing for the possibility that McCain will be the nominee. “There was always a general sense we had a great chance to capture the White House and maintain the House with Bush as our nominee,” said one House Republican who asked not to be identified. “I’m not sure that’s true anymore, that he’s inevitable.” Davis, who spent part of Friday campaigning in Virginia with Bush, said that a McCain victory could be “an opportunity” for the Republican Party. Noting that McCain is beating Vice President Gore handily in head-to-head matchups, he said: “If McCain is the nominee and the polls are anything like how they are today, that can’t be anything but good news.” © 2000 The Washington Post Company {{<End>}} A<>E<>R ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Integrity has no need of rules. -Albert Camus (1913-1960) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your common sense." --Buddha + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly. -Bertrand Russell + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Everyone has the right...to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers." 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